Buy Hindustan Petroleum; target of Rs 630: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities is bullish on Hindustan Petroleum has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 630 in its research report dated January 22, 2026.

Broker Research

January 23, 2026 / 14:37 IST

Buy

ICICI Securities's research report on Hindustan Petroleum

HPCL’s Q3FY26 standalone EBITDA/PAT of INR 70.2bn/INR 40.8bn rose 17.6%/34.7% YoY (+2/+6% QoQ) vs. I-Sec est. of INR 73.7/INR 41.6bn. Contamination in an oil cargo at the Mumbai refinery (MR) and subsequent cleanup impacted MR’s GRM by USD 3.5/bbl, offset by lower LPG losses (down INR 7bn QoQ) and LPG compensation of INR 13.2bn. FY26–28E is likely to see momentum, led by: 1) higher and more complex refining capacity; 2) resilient GRM trends; 3) operational efficiencies; and 4) deleveraging. Average EBITDA run-rate for last four quarters is at INR 68bn vs. last 14 quarters’ avg. of INR 43.8bn; we see similar trends for Q4FY26–H1FY27E, helped by higher GRMs, Vizag residual commissioning (incremental USD2-2.5/bbl benefit) and steady retail margins. Maintain BUY with revised TP of INR 630.

Outlook

We revise TP to INR 630 (earlier INR 620), implying a 47% upside from CMP. Reiterate BUY.

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