In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 31 of the 47 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs). It might be hoping to repeat that success, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
Counting of votes in elections to the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly started at 8 am on Sunday, with security personnel maintaining a strict vigil in counting centres in the state's 33 districts, including those affected by Left Wing Extremism (LWE), a poll official said.
All eyes will be on the fight between the Congress and BJP as counting of votes begin. Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana Assembly results are being billed as a semi-finals of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The results of Mizoram polls will be declared on December 4 as the Election Commission deferred the counting by a day.
The Congress, which is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and the BJP, which is ruling Madhya Pradesh, are locked in a straight fight in these three states, while K Chandrashekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is hoping for a hat-trick in Telangana.
The 2013 assembly polls were influenced greatly by the Modi wave sweeping the country then. Massive anti-incumbency against tilted the 2018 verdict against three BJP governments. In contrast, 2023 is seeing both anti-incumbency and pro-incumbency sentiment. The dominating theme this time is government’s delivery versus opposition’s promises
Even if the Congress retains power, it is uncertain if Baghel will secure a second term as Chief Minister. Or is a BJP-win likely, something that exit polls haven’t been able to read?
Competitive welfarism has set in. With Opposition certain to make tall promises to voters for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the central government will attempt to neutralise those with handouts that have an immediate impact and sets the poll narrative in BJP’s favour
Although Congress had won 54 percentage of the Assembly seats cumulatively in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in 2018, it failed to use the momentum during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, only winning 4.62 percentage of the seats available.
Congress will need some big wins to drive home a tough bargain with INDIA alliance partners. For BJP, victories will reinforce perceptions that it is headed for three successive Lok Sabha wins and that PM Modi can front assembly polls for the party without needing strong state-level leadership
Chhattisgarh Results Highlights: Vote counting concludes in Chhattisgarh. BJP wins 54 seats; will form government. Although former chief minister and Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel won from his seat, he lost the state and submitted his resignation today.
Assembly Elections 2023: Turnout figures don’t give us any indication of pro- or anti-incumbency. Nor does turnout reveal anything about extreme social polarisation at the constituency level. It is just an indicator of whether voters showed interest in the election
Assembly Elections 2023: These elections won’t have much impact on 2024 beyond galvanising or demoralising workers on winning and losing sides. What December 3 will certainly do is bring parties back to strategising for the Lok Sabha polls. The opposition, especially, has much ground to cover including picking a formidable candidate who can be projected against PM Modi
Assembly Elections 2023: The exit poll projections give both Congress and the BJP a reprieve. Congress can take heart if it wins Telangana and Chhattisgarh. BJP will be reassured by wins in MP and Rajasthan heading into 2024. But the split result forewarns a mad rush of freebie promises that is the antithesis of good economics
Assembly Polls 2023: Exit polling is very difficult work. Two notable agencies are differing hugely on exit poll projections for some of the states. Only one of them can be right. From reasons like India’s sheer diversity to shortcomings in sampling and work ethic, exit polling can go wrong for a number of reasons
Despite each news channel presenting different numbers for the contesting parties, a common thread emerges: the Congress is poised to return to power. However, considering the varying margins shown and the potential for errors acknowledged by surveying agencies, don't rule out the BJP yet
The strike rate of polling agencies in 2018 left was poor. Except for Rajasthan, where the revolving door tradition makes it easy for pollsters, more agencies were wide off the mark than correct in MP, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The last two states witnessed landslides, which few agencies got right
According to the Misery Index, Rajasthan is the most miserable, while Chhattisgarh is the least. But a more nuanced look is needed, taking into account how many of those counted as employed are actually in disguised unemployment
The strain on the fiscal front is not worth the purported benefits that may accrue to political parties
Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023 Highlights: "Rajasthan ki yahi pukaar, aa rhi hai BJP sarkar' (Rajasthan is calling for BJP government). BJP has had a special relationship with the people of this region...Be it Congress ministers or MLAs, all are unruly," says PM.
Assembly Elections 2023: The messaging has been tailored to various constituencies--national rejuvenation for some, Hindutva for core supporters, pointers to economic achievements for the elites, freebies to those left behind and also the caste card. But the prime minister being the face of the BJP in the state elections is expected to pay dividends in next year’s general election
Bhind and Morena in Madhya Pradesh witnessed minor violence during voting and police had to be called to control teh situation. In another development, an ITBP jawan was killed in an IED blast in Chhattisgarh’s Gariyaband district,
Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: BJP’s central leadership supercharged the BJP campaign in a way that was inconceivable a few months ago. PM Modi’s frontal attacks on a well-placed Bhupesh Baghel shook the Congress but will it be enough to counter Baghel’s careful nurturing of the farm vote?
The second and final phase of assembly polls involving 70 seats in the state began on Friday morning, while results will be declared on December 3.
Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Bhupesh Baghel has dominated the government and state politics to such an extent that the Congress party began visualising a national profile for him. All that is at stake today
MP, Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Will it be a vote for change or continuity in the two states? The two neighbours witnessed a spirited contest between BJP and Congress to woo voters, who were spoiled for choice with the competition between the two parties extending to who can offer the more generous freebies