Assembly Elections 2023: The possibilities for national politics if exit poll projections hold

Assembly Elections 2023: Since there are a number of exit polls, one tends to look at the "poll of all exit polls" that all TV channels offer for some clarity.

Are the exit polls close to the actual polls? Certainly not but they have shown to be broadly indicating the voting trends in most cases. They have also proved to be a shocker when they have completely thrown up results that are opposite of a broad expectation of an outcome.

However, since there are a number of exit polls, one tends to look at the "poll of all exit polls" that all TV channels offer for some clarity. If one goes by an aggregate of the exit polls, it is a pointer to a definite Congress' resurgence in Telangana and its emergence as an invincible political entity in Chhattisgarh.

However, the BJP is set to defeat the Congress and return to power in Rajasthan where no incumbent government has ever been voted back in the last thirty years. In Madhya Pradesh too, there are very good chances that the BJP gets a fifth term. (It won elections in 2003, 2008, and 2013 and returned to power in 2020 for a fourth term after the ouster of Kamal Nath as CM when Jyotiraditya Scindia and his loyalists exited the Congress and joined the BJP).

Telangana, Chhattisgarh Boost For Congress

The shocker is, of course, for the K Chandrashekar Rao-led BRS, which has been in power in Telangana since the formation of the state in 2014. Almost all the exit polls have predicted a Congress sweep in the southern state. They differ only on the number of seats by which the Congress will give itself a huge morale booster ahead of Lok Sabha elections. This would be a feather in its cap after the massive success in Karnataka in May this year.

For the duo of Rahul Gandhi-Priyanka Vadra who undertook an intensive campaign, it is a vindication of sorts and a proof that their formula of offering "guarantees" to woo voters is bringing electoral dividends – even if Congress governments in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh are struggling to implement tall poll promises.

Nevertheless, a win in Telangana and Chattisgarh for the Congress could ensure the Gandhi family remains at the centrestage  of a yet-to-crystalise combined opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 2024 polls.

Congress’s Hindi Heartland Weakness

At the same time, the disappointment in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh would trigger some rethinking among party leaders about their individual futures. The non-BJP parties too would question the ability of the Congress to wrest back vast swathes of northern India where the BJP is a very dominant political force under Modi.

The setbacks in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh would also raise questions within the Congress over its dependence on satraps like Ashok Gehlot and Kamal Nath. A newcomer like Revanth Reddy seems to be delivering a challenging state like Telangana with a lot of ease despite upsetting old loyalists in the Congress.

The Congress leadership might be tempted to try out not only fresher faces for the Lok Sabha polls but also go full throttle on an overdose of welfarism as a mantra for winning elections. This could risk the fine balance needed between good economics and successful politics, and usher in an era of competitive packages to woo the voters.

However, without a win in Telangana, the Congress would remain diminished as a victory in Chhattisgarh would not be enough for the opposition to upset Modi and the BJP in 2024. One must remember that Modi managed to get an even bigger mandate in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, compared to 2014, despite the setback for the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh in the 2018 assembly polls.

MP, Raj Victories Will Cheer BJP

Undoubtedly, Modi will remain a very influential leader as the national stage is set for the 2024 mega battle. Though the results in Chattisgarh could be a disappointment but not unexpected for the BJP, the victory in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will power the strategy for the parliamentary elections.

However, Modi too may be forced or tempted to tilt towards a greater dose of welfarism though he is not happy about the advent of "revadi" (freebies) politics. Telangana would not be a big setback because the BJP had reconciled to being a third player a few months ago.

However, a hung house in Telangana could throw up a surprise. The BJP may then be a kingmaker too if its tally crosses two digits in a 119-member assembly. Between KCR and the Congress, the BJP knows which entity has to be kept out of power.

What The Exit Polls Have Said

In Madhya Pradesh, a majority of exit polls predicted an intense battle between the ruling BJP and the Congress — two gave the edge to the BJP, one to the Congress and two forecast a close fight. IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today’s Chanakya-News 24 predicted a sweep for the BJP.

In Rajasthan, a majority of exit polls predicted that the BJP is coming back to power either with a narrow or a comfortable majority. But IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today’s Chanakya-News 24 both predicted a neck-and-neck fight with the Congress ahead.

In Chhattisgarh, where the Congress defeated the BJP in a landslide in 2018, five exit polls predicted a close fight with the Congress inching ahead. Three others have shown CM Bhupesh Baghel is to get a second straight term. In the tribal-dominated state, the Congress had campaigned on its paddy procurement scheme and other welfare programmes, with the BJP attacking Baghel over corruption allegations. For Chhattisgarh, almost all the polls predicted a clear edge for the Congress, although not a sweep.

In Telangana, the only southern state to go to the polls in this round, almost every exit poll predicted that the Congress is set to displace the BRS that has ruled the state since its inception in 2014. Three exit polls said that the Congress would get a simple majority of its own while others predicted that it would likely emerge as the single-largest party.

In Mizoram, where the MNF is looking for a second consecutive term, nearly all exit polls predicted a hung assembly. The fight is largely between the MNF and the ZPM, with Axis My India even projecting a big victory for the ZPM’s six-party regional alliance.