Why BJP lost in UP: Internal struggles and failed alliances are to be blamed

Top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, won with reduced margins.

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) analyzes the causes behind its recent electoral defeat, significant questions arise about its failure to secure Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes, despite alliances with several caste-based parties such as Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), NISHAD Party, Apna Dal (S), and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

The BJP had set an ambitious target to win all 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) to achieve a broader goal of securing 400 seats nationally. “We did not get the support from the allies. The caste-based leaders failed to galvanize voters and bring them to vote for BJP,” a senior BJP leader commented.

In response to the Samajwadi Party's (SP) PDA formula, the BJP re-inducted SBSP President Om Prakash Rajbhar into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), aiming to attract Rajbhar votes. Rajbhar had previously left the BJP for the SP before the 2022 assembly elections. Additionally, the BJP courted Dara Singh Chauhan, an OBC leader, and successfully pulled RLD away from the INDIA alliance in February so as to improve its social justice umbrella.

The BJP allocated seats to its NDA allies, with SBSP contesting one seat, while Apna Dal (S) and RLD contested two seats each. Sanjay Nishad's son, Praveen Nishad, was given the Sant Kabir Nagar seat for the second time. The party hoped that these OBC leaders would draw non-Yadav OBC votes. However, election results revealed that these caste-based leaders failed to secure votes from their own communities. Om Prakash Rajbhar could not win the Ghosi seat for his son. Additionally, the BJP suffered defeats in key constituencies with significant Rajbhar populations, including Ballia, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Salempur, Lalganj, and Azamgarh.

Apna Dal (S) leader Anupriya Patel, a prominent Kurmi face in the NDA, barely managed to retain her seat after a tough contest in Mirzapur and lost Robertsganj. The BJP also lost in other Kurmi-dominated areas like Pratapgarh, Fatehpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Shravasti, and Jalaun.

Internal dissatisfaction among BJP workers further exposed organizational weaknesses. “Neither the BJP's preparations nor its welfare schemes had the desired impact on voters. The party’s excessive confidence among top leaders, ignoring local cadres in ticket distribution, led to significant losses,” said a BJP leader.

Of the 17 MPs who were replaced by new faces, five were defeated. The loss of 26 sitting MPs, including six central ministers, signifies a substantial backlash against the BJP's ticket distribution strategy, which overlooked local discontent. Top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, won with reduced margins. Besides central ministers, two state ministers also lost their elections.

Compared to the previous election, the BJP's vote share dropped significantly from 49.97% in 2019 to approximately 41.37% this time. This reduction reflects the party's diminished influence in UP.

“There are many reasons for the poor performance, including neglect of party cadres and reliance on outsiders, lack of coordination between organization and government, and arbitrary ticket distribution,” a senior leader explained. Inactive grassroots committees and ineffective ministers further exacerbated the situation.