Odisha: Anatomy of a failed alliance

As the state prepares for the final countdown, the rapport between Naveen Patnaik and Narendra Modi is anticipated to remain unaffected

Double the power, half the risk. Forge an alliance. That’s how it goes. But the big-ticket announcement of a possible alliance between the BJP and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has crash landed. There are several defining reasons behind this occurrence.

The contentious issue of sharing of Assembly seats was the main trigger because BJD backed out. It reportedly did not want to contest on anything less than 100 of the 147 Assembly seats. But the BJP was fishing for 57 seats.

Both political gladiators could not agree on a power-sharing formula post-election either. The BJP’s plans to field certain rebel BJD leaders in the elections did not go down well in the Naveen camp.

Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik reportedly shares an excellent rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has done his best to support the NDA during the contentious Rajya Sabha elections. Modi never makes any direct remark against Naveen. The CM has also kept his distance from the opposition INDIA bloc.

BJD insiders say Naveen babu wasn’t keen on any alliance with BJP. Also state “super boss” VK Pandian declared during the News18 Rising Summit this week that neither Modi nor Patnaik needed an alliance. Then who did?

Pandian fronted the alliance talks with Home Minister Amit Shah’s office making frequent trips to Delhi.

Senior journalist Sandeep Sahu puts forward a theory. “Pandian knows in a scenario minus Naveen he might face rebellion within the BJD or a split. In that case, the BJP could prop him up. As a quid pro quo the BJD would have to allow BJP to share power in the state.”

It is evident that the alliance discussion was approved by Naveen Patnaik. This has caused concern among the ministers, who privately express worry regarding Odisha's lackluster performance in areas such as education, healthcare, and agriculture.

Senior Journalist Navin Das hits his point home. “The anti-incumbency factor is high against the BJD. After all, Naveen Patnaik has been in the main chair for 24 years. That factor needs to be accounted for. The Congress is non-existent. And the BJP would surely gain.”

Navin Das predicts BJP doubling its share of assembly seats from 23 to 50. Out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats BJD won 8 in 2019. Das predicts a figure of 12/13 seats this time around for BJP.

But that optimism is not shared by Jajati Karan, Editor in Chief of Ommcom Media. Jajati says: “BJP will not do well. It is limited to western Odisha while BJD flourishes in the coastal and northern belt. I do not see BJP going beyond its 8 Lok Sabha seats while it may do marginally better in the assembly segment. BJD will go beyond 100 seats in the state elections.”

Jajati believes BJD would not get hurt. In fact, the collaboration may have helped BJP more to up its tally.

Sandeep Sahu wraps up the alliance fall-out saying it had 2 major niggles:

BJD’s insistence on letting BJP in for power sharing. And BJP wanting to contest more assembly seats which Naveen Patnaik was not in favour of. “BJD wanted to contest at least 100-110 assembly seats.”  Anything else was a deal-breaker.

But state observers say the door has been kept open for a suitable post-poll alliance.

Here’s a quick look at the 2019 results:

Lok Sabha seats 21:

BJD - 12

BJP - 8

Cong - 1

Vote Share:

BJD - 43.3 %

BJP – 38.9 %

Cong – 14 %

State assembly seats 147:

BJD  - 113

BJP – 23

Cong - 9

BJP state chief Manmohan Samal played a deft hand. He thanked BJD for supporting Modi-led BJP government in many matters of national importance. And then came the hammer blow.

"To create a developed India and developed Odisha, the BJP will win all the 21 seats of the Lok Sabha and all the 147 seats of the Legislative Assembly. We will contest the seats alone," he added.

The state's chief also asserted that numerous welfare programs initiated by the Modi government were not effectively reaching the grassroots level in Odisha.

Local analysts perceive this statement as an attempt to extricate oneself from a challenging predicament. However, what garners greater interest is the revelation that the BJD has on some occasions appropriated certain schemes of the Central Government, rebranding them as its own.

For instance: When Modi came into power in 2014 the Centre provided ambulances 108 to Odisha. Soon the CM’s mug shot was all over these ambulances to possibly convey the message that they were part of state schemes. Later, on Centre’s complaint the pictures were removed.

Another instance was the controversy over houses built in Odisha under the PM Awas Yojana. Some were clubbed under the umbrella of the Biju Awas Yojana. This discrepancy was pointed out by media reports.

As the state prepares for the final countdown, the rapport between Naveen Patnaik and Narendra Modi is anticipated to remain unaffected. BJD would spare no effort to increase their number of seats, if not maintaining the status quo. Naveen's health would be closely monitored and remain a topic of interest.

After all Naveen Patnaik is the heart of the proverbial Garuda.