Lok Sabha polls: Low voter turnout in first 2 phases a 'myth'? Here's what SBI Research found

The report said that women voters have outstripped men in incremental numbers

Over 8.7 lakh additional voters cast their ballot in the first two phases of Lok Sabha elections compared to 2019, logging an overall increase of 0.4%, according to an analysis by SBI Research.

In a report titled 'WHITE NOISE: A J-SHAPED voting on the anvil' published on Monday, SBI Research called the ongoing debates around "supposedly low voter turnout" in the first two phases a "myth".

The report said that while the voter turnout ratio is showing a declining trend in 2024 as compared to 2019, in percentage terms, there has been a significant increase in terms of absolute voters.

It comes days after the Election Commission released the final turnout figures of phases 1 and 2, which stood at 66.1% and 66.7% respectively. Compared to the 2019 figures of 69.4% and 69.2%, this was a drop of 3.3 percentage points in phase 1 and 2.5% percentage points in phase 2.

"Provisionally, a total of 20.7 crore voters cast their votes in 2024 as compared to 20.6 crore casting their votes in 2019, an increase of 8.7 lakh voters," it said.

It noted that a clear and better measure of voting pattern can be gauged by an absolute number of voters and not on per cent of votes polled.

The analysis further revealed that 60 per cent of parliamentary constituencies that voted so far show either an increase or status quo in terms of votes cast.

It added that the figures can improve in the remaining five phases with earnest efforts from the poll panel.

"The numbers can swell in the remaining five phases with earnest efforts from the Election Commission of India and based on voter turnout probabilities ... parliament efficiency at its best in the past 68 years ...," the report said.

It also found that female voters outstripped male voters in 2024. While female voters showed a total increase of 5.7 lakh, male voters recorded a rise of just 3 lakh.

In its state-wise analysis, SBI Research found that Karnataka accounted for the highest number of increase in voters in 2024, followed by Assam and Maharashtra.

"A granular analysis of constituencies shows absolute voters casting their votes increasing by more than 1 lakh in 85 constituencies whereas in 25 constituencies, there has been status quo ... hence ~60% constituencies exhibited either increase or no marked difference," it said.

It further estimated that the turnout in the constituencies yet to vote should be on the higher side since the average male voter per constituency is 9.61 lakh and average female voter is 8.98 lakh in the seats that will vote in the next five phases.

"Using the count data for pooled sample for first two phases, probabilities for male and female turnout ratio have been estimated. We also believe the scorching summer and sweeping heatwaves might have played a spoilsport for a certain percentage of voters willing yet unable to exercise the franchise," it said.

"We also believe the scorching summer and sweeping heat waves might have played a spoilsport for a certain percentage of voters willing yet unable to exercise the franchise," it further said.

The report was released ahead of the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 7. The remaining phases will take place on May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The results will be announced on June 4.