Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why BJP refuses ticket to 23.5% sitting MPs despite PM Modi's 370-seat dream?

A file photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Home Minister Amit Shah.

In the ever-changing realm of politics, the fortunes of incumbent Members of Parliament (MPs) can swiftly fluctuate as elections draw near. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has unveiled 267 candidates in its preliminary two lists for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, signalling a significant departure as approximately 23.5 percent of current legislators have not been nominated for party tickets in their respective constituencies. This strategic move has been meticulously crafted to address potential anti-incumbency sentiments, with decisions informed by comprehensive feedback collected at the grassroots level.

BJP's Candidate Reshuffle

In the initial list released on March 2, only 33 MPs were substituted despite the naming of 195 candidates, including notable figures such as Pragya Thakur, Ramesh Bidhuri, and Parvesh Verma. However, in the latest list of 72 names unveiled on March 13, a significant shift occurred as 30 MPs, including Union minister Darshana Jardosh and former ministers Sadananda Gowda and Ramesh Pokhriyal 'Nishank', were removed from their respective constituencies. The BJP's second list features 10 women candidates.

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Election Strategy: A Detailed Look

Precisely, out of the 267 candidates featured in the initial two lists of the BJP, a substantial turnover has been observed, with 63 MPs being replaced by new candidates. This transition highlights the saffron party’s well-calculated move ahead of the forthcoming general elections, with a significant emphasis on revitalising its representation and addressing potential voter sentiments.

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BJP Introduces Fresh Faces for Delhi

In Delhi, which sends seven members to the Lok Sabha, the party has introduced almost entirely fresh faces, with only one exception. The lone incumbent retained is Bhojpuri cinema artist-turned-politician Manoj Tiwari, who will once again contest for the North East seat. Cricketer-turned-politician Gautam Gambhir, the current MP from the East Delhi constituency, has chosen to step back. His position has been filled by Harsh Malhotra, the former mayor of the erstwhile East Delhi Municipal Corporation. Analysts say this strategic reshuffling highlights the BJP's recalibration and the injection of fresh blood into its electoral list ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

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Major Turnover in Karnataka's Political Landscape

In Karnataka's political sphere, the release of the second candidate list signifies a notable turnover, with 11 incumbent MPs being replaced out of the 20 declared candidates thus far. Among these candidates, nine MPs, including former state unit chief Nalin Kateel and two-term Mysore MP Prathap Simha, have been substituted. Simha, who was embroiled in the Parliament security breach controversy, has been succeeded by Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from the Mysore royal family.

Maharashtra's Electoral Dynamics: 14 Sitting MPs Set for Re-election

In contrast, the narrative in Maharashtra presents a different scenario, with 14 MPs gearing up for re-election while only five have had their tickets revoked. Among the familiar faces returning is Union minister Nitin Gadkari, who will once again represent Nagpur. A notable transition occurs in Beed, where Pritam Munde's candidacy has been succeeded by her sister, Pankaja Munde, suggesting a strategic reshuffle within the electoral landscape.

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Haryana: 2nd List Balances Continuity and Change

In Haryana, the second list reveals a mix of continuity and change, with three incumbent MPs retained while two have been substituted. Furthermore, a fresh face has been nominated for a seat left vacant due to the passing of the incumbent MP.

Key Contest Emerges in Chhindwara

In the second list for Madhya Pradesh, two incumbent MPs have secured their positions, while two others have been excluded. Of significance is the emergence of a fresh contender, Vivek Sahu, who will fight against Congress's Nakul Nath in the Chhindwara constituency. This seat holds particular significance as it was the sole constituency lost by the saffron party in the state during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

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Telangana Electoral Strategy

Turning to Telangana, where the BJP's electoral success was limited to four seats in the previous election, there's a blend of consistency and adjustment. One MP has been re-nominated, while another ticket has been withdrawn, indicating a strategic reassessment in the pursuit of electoral gains.

Tactical Reshuffle: Enhancing Winnability

Political observers argue that the party has scrutinised the performance reports of incumbent MPs, and those deemed unsatisfactory in initial assessments have been replaced. This strategic decision is seen as a move to enhance winnability and align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious goal of securing 370 seats independently.

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Rotation Strategy: Path to Renewal and Empowerment

"The decision to drop 23.5 percent of sitting MPs sends a clear message to non-performers and serves as a reminder to those who may have taken their victories for granted under the cover of Modi's leadership. While there is a strong desire for Modi's return, dissatisfaction with many BJP MPs and MLAs persists among the electorate. Additionally, this strategy reflects an intention to rotate power between the organisational and governmental wings of the party, while also providing opportunities for political learning and empowerment, particularly for young blood and women," observes AK Verma, Director, Centre for the Study of Society and Politics (CSSP), Kanpur.

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Methodical Approach in Candidate Selection

The party evaluated survey reports concerning these MPs and scrutinised potential candidates who could offer stronger representation in their respective constituencies. Typically, the party takes into account numerous factors before deciding to withhold tickets from sitting MPs/MLAs with weak performance records or opting to nominate a new candidate for a particular seat. According to experts, it appears that incumbents whose performance has been lacking, and for whom the party has identified stronger alternatives, have been replaced.

Electoral Overhaul: Replacement of 99 Sitting MPs in 2019

During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP made history by contesting more seats than the Congress for the first time. Moreover, it was the highest number of seats ever contested by the party since its establishment in 1980 as a rebranding of its predecessor, the Jana Sangh. Reports say that during this election cycle, the BJP replaced around 99 sitting MPs, introducing a significant number of new faces into the electoral fray.