Bengaluru: Can Congress breach this BJP bastion?

Voting will take place in Bengaluru constituencies on April 26

Bengaluru City has seen its fair share of political heavyweights entering the fray during the Lok Sabha elections. Anant Kumar, Sadananda Gowda, Nandan Nilekani, Prakash Raj, Jaffer Shariff, Gundu Rao, HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy are just some of the many political heavyweights who contested from the city over the last quarter century. This time around too, there are high profile candidates contesting from the four different seats in the city (including Bengaluru rural). Since the turn of the millennium, the BJP has dominated all the three seats across Bengaluru city. BJP has been undefeated in Bengaluru South since 1991. Similarly, Bengaluru North has been with the party since 2004 and Bengaluru Central since 2009. The only outlier is Bengaluru Rural (formerly Kanakapura) which has swung between the Congress and JDS. The sitting MP is DK Suresh of the Congress. He has held this seat since 2014. In 2024, does the Congress have a chance of making in-roads across the four seats? Or would the BJP-JDS alliance help the BJP and NDA achieve a clean sweep across the city?

In Bengaluru City North, South and Central, the BJP has not lost a Lok Sabha election since the 2000s. State Assembly elections paint a different picture, with a three-way fight between the BJP, Congress and JDS. Out of the 8 assembly seats in Bengaluru Central, the Congress won 5 in 2023. In South Bengaluru and in Bengaluru North, the Congress candidates were victorious in 3 out of the 8 Assembly seats in the last assembly election. Overall, of the 32 Assembly constituencies in Bengaluru Urban and Rural districts, the Congress won 16 in 2023, the JDS won just 1 and the BJP won 15. This clearly suggests that the Congress has a strong support base in the city at the Assembly level. However, it is not able to convert this success in Lok Sabha elections.  The Congress will need to reverse this trend and hold on to votes it got at the Assembly level.

Across Bengaluru city, there are key issues around which the Congress can mobilize support. At the ground level there is significant displeasure regarding inadequate infrastructure and poor urban planning. The city is currently in the midst of an acute water crisis. Several parts of the city were left without water as tanks ran dry. The crisis once again bought to the spotlight the poor urban planning and general administrative apathy. Alongside the water crisis, Bengaluru is infamous for its long traffic jams. While the city has grown exponentially, infrastructure development is lagging far behind. Issues like access to water, better public transport and resolving the chronic traffic problems are the core concerns of several Bengaluru residents. Addressing these concerns and building a campaign around these issues offers the Congress a good opportunity to make inroads. During last year’s assembly elections, the Congress managed to do exactly this by building their campaign around local issues. While poor infrastructure and the water crisis is likely to gain traction on the ground, can the Congress convert it into votes? This will be a very important factor.  The counter argument is that given the focus on its five guarantees, has the Congress alienated the middle class and well to do urban voter who could believe that funds for infrastructure growth are diverted.

The BJP-JDS alliance could have a crucial role to play in the Bengaluru Rural constituency. The BJP has not tasted much success in this constituency. The party’s only victory came in 1998, before de-limitation when the constituency was known as Kanakapura. Apart from this one instance, the seat has alternated between the Congress and JDS. In 2009 and in 2014 when neither of the three parties where in a pre-poll alliance, the seat witnessed a three-way fight. In 2009, HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS was elected from the constituency while in 2014 the Congress’ D.K. Suresh was the winning candidate. The BJP was in second position in both instances. In 2019, with the Congress and JDS in an alliance, the JDS did not put up a candidate. Despite the Congress candidate winning, the vote share patterns suggest the JDS’ 20% vote share was split between the Congress and BJP. This time around, with the JDS and BJP in alliance, the question remains if the JDS votes can shift over to the BJP. If this does happen, the NDA and BJP would have a clear advantage. If not, the Congress would have a good chance at achieving a hattrick of wins in Bengaluru Rural.

Bengaluru South will witness an interesting battle. Though Tejaswi Surya, the sitting MP got over 62% of the votes in 2019, the Congress this time has put up Sowmya Reddy as their candidate. She is the daughter of State Cabinet Minister Ramalinga Reddy. Having won the Assembly elections (from Jayanagar which falls within Bengaluru South) in 2018, she lost the last Vidhan Sabha elections being defeated by a narrow margin of 16 votes.  Clearly, she is someone who has a good track record of electoral success and a strong support base on the ground. Can she build the same support base at the Lok Sabha level? This goes back to the Achillies heel the Congress has had in Bengaluru during Lok Sabha elections. The BJP representative from Bangalore South, before Tejasvi Surya was Anant Kumar who won the seat from 1996 to 2014. In many occasions the, three cornered contest in the constituency benefited Anant Kumar.

In Bengaluru North, the sitting BJP MP, Sadananda Gowda has been dropped in favour of Shobha Karandlaje. She herself was moved here from Udupi-Chikkamagaluru. The BJP would be slightly concerned about the repercussions following this move. Sadananda Gowda has been vocal in expressing his displeasure over being dropped.  He has vowed to ‘cleanse’ the party and put an end to ‘nepotism’. While he has emphasized that he will not be leaving the party, unhappiness amongst his supporters and party workers could be a matter of concern for the BJP.

Overall, despite the Congress’ strong performance in Bengaluru city in the 2023 Assembly polls, the upcoming Lok Sabha polls are clearly a different ball game. Past elections have indicated that voters in Bengaluru vote very differently in national elections when compared to state assembly elections. With the central leadership of the BJP very popular, the momentum is still with the BJP to retain its strong hold over the three constituencies in Bengaluru Urban district. The Congress will need to retain its Vidhan Sabha support base and gain support based on its five guarantees. The party’s past record suggests that this is easier said than done.