How accurate were exit polls during 2019 & 2014 Lok Sabha elections?

Tough fight in Bengaluru rural.

The seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha elections concluded on June 1, bringing an end to the weeks-long poll season in the country. Immediately after polling concluded in the last phase, the focus shifted to the exit polls released by several media outlets with many of them predicting a big win for BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Exit polls are carried out by private agencies and media organisations to forecast the outcome of the elections based on responses from voters at polling booths. They are released after voting ends in all phases of the elections since the model code of conduct enforced by the Election Commission gets lifted.

These predictions give important insights into the election trends and likely outcomes before the official results are declared.

The accuracy of an exit poll can hinge on several factors such as the methodology, sample size and even the phrasing of questions. This means they can be a hit-and-miss affair.

In 2019, multiple agencies had released their exit polls after the conclusion of the final phase on May 19.

A poll of eight prominent exit polls (Axis My India, Ipsos, Today's Chanakya, VMR, CNX, Polstrat, Cvoter & CSDS) projected 312 seats for BJP-led NDA and 114 seats for the Congress-led UPA.

The NDA went on to win 353 seats in Lok Sabha while UPA bagged only 91. Of this, BJP won 303 seats and Congress got 52.

While the exit polls accurately predicted that NDA would surpass 300 seats and retain power, most underestimated the actual number of seats it won.

Of these exit polls, India Today-Axis My India and Today's Chanakya were the most accurate since they had predicted over 350 seats for NDA and just 93-95 for UPA.

On the other end of the table, ABP-CSDS had predicted just 277 seats for NDA and 130 for UPA. It said that BJP will not be able to form the government on its own and would need the help of allies. However, the predictions proved to be way off the mark.

Similarly in 2014, most of the exit polls predicted that BJP-led NDA would would come to power, but failed to accurately foresee the landslide victory that followed.

While many of the pollsters predicted that NDA would get less than 300 seats, the reality turned out to be different as it bagged an overall 336 seats. Similarly, the prediction for UPA stood at close to 100 seats but it was reduced to just 60.

Today's Chanakya made the most accurate prediction with 340 seats for NDA.