BJP's big state woes, vote-seat conundrum, saffron greenshoots: Lok Sabha results explained in charts

While BJP is set to form a government for the 3rd time, a spirited Congress show has denied it a majority in Lok Sabha

NDA 292, INDIA 234, Others 17 - that's the final scorecard of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which delivered surprises and shocks in equal measure. The surprise: NDA managed to scrape through but a strong performance by opposition INDIA bloc denied BJP a majority in Lok Sabha. The shock: despite just a marginal change in their vote share, both BJP and Congress saw a wild swing in their overall seat tally, an outcome that changed the narrative of this election which appeared heavily tipped in Modi's favour just two days ago.

Here's a look at some key numbers which tell the story of Lok Sabha elections 2024:

Missing the mark: The BJP won 240 seats - its lowest tally in a decade - and Congress clinched 99 seats - its highest in a decade. As the buzz of "400-paar" fizzled out on Tuesday when the initial trends indicated a tough fight, the focus immediately shifted to whether BJP will reach the 272-mark on its own. Not having a majority in Parliament will keep the BJP government on the edge, making it dependent on the whims of shifty allies such as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. Overall, BJP saw a 21% fall in its seat share while Congress registered an impressive 90% jump.

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Strike rate: BJP's loss and Congress's gain also reflected in the strike rate of the two parties, which saw a significant change compared to 2019. BJP's strike rate fell to 54.4% in 2024 compared to nearly 70% in 2019. Congress saw an encouraging bump in its strike rate, which rose to 30.3% in 2024 from 12.4% in the previous election. Notably, BJP contested 441 seats while Congress fielded candidates in 328. This was the lowest number of seats contested by Congress in its electoral history.

BJP's average margin of victory

Saffron slide in major states: The major setback for BJP came in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar. In UP, it lost a whopping 29 seats; in Maharashtra it lost 14; in West Bengal it lost 6; and in Bihar it lost 5. Altogether, BJP lost as many as 54 seats in these four states. Moreover, it failed to make a mark in Tamil Nadu - a key southern state that sends 39 members to Parliament. Additionally, it lost 10 seats in Rajasthan and 8 in Karnataka.

Phase-wise pickings: In the first and the biggest phase, BJP and Congress won roughly the same number of seats. Out of 102 seats that went to polls on April 19, BJP won 30 while Congress secured 27. BJP's strike rate and seat share improved in second and third phases. In the second phase, it won 46 out of 90 seats - a strike rate of 51%. In the second, it won 57 out of 94 seats - a strike rate of 60.6%. It again dipped slightly in fourth and fifth phases but recovered in the sixth phase. It fared poorly again in the final phase.

Highs and lows: The highest victory margin this year was in Assam's Dhubri, where Congress Rakibul Hussain defeated AIUDF heavyweight Badruddin Ajmal by a whopping 10.1 lakh votes. Conversely, the lowest victory margin in 2024 was just 48 with Shiv Sena's Ravindra Waikar defeating Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Amol Kirtikar in Mumbai North West. Nota was the runner-up in Indore after Congress candidate withdrew from the contest at the last minute. Here, BJP's candidate Shankar Lalwani won by a huge margin of nearly 11 lakh votes.

Teesri baar, NDA sarkar: Despite a curtailed majority for NDA, the alliance looks set to form a third straight government at the Centre. This itself is an historic takeway since it will be for the first time since 1962 that a government has retained power consecutively for a third time. Moreover, as on June 4, PM Modi remains the longest-serving head of an elected government with 8,277 days in power, and counting. He is also the third longest-serving PM after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi.

Cong flourish in SC/ST, rural boroughs: The 2024 results show that Congress improved its seat share in 131 SC/ST constituencies across the country. In 2024, the grand old party won 33 out of these seats compared to just 10 in 2014. That's a three-fold jump. However, BJP's tally came down to 53 in 2024 from 77 in 2019. Similarly, Congress improved its tally in about 339 rural seats across the country too. The party won 54 out of these, compared to 29 in the previous election. The BJP's share of rural seats declined to 147 in 2024 from 195 in 2019.

Saffron greenshoots: The BJP will take heart from its first ever electoral conquest in Kerala, with its candidate Suresh Gopi securing the Thrissur constituency. The party had been struggling to gain ground in the state that has been dominated by either the Congress-led UDF or the CPM-led LDF. Similarly, the party is set to form its first-ever government in Odisha after it successfully unseated the five-time chief minister Naveen Patnaik. Even in Lok Sabha, BJP completely decimated Patnaik's BJD, winning 20 out of the 21 seats in the state.