Analysis: Why Congress sees an opening in Assam with Badruddin Ajmal’s historic defeat

Badruddin Ajmal’s messiah-like image among Assam’s Bengali-migrants was severely dented as Congress old horse Rakibul Hussain staged a major upset in Dhubri.

Despite its poor show in all-crucial state of Assam in the 18th Lok Sabha election, the ‘celebratory’ mood in Pradesh Congress office in Rajiv Bhawan, Guwahati could not be missed. Although the grand party managed to secure three seats from the state- Jorhat, Dhubri and Nagaon, Rakibul Hussain’s victory by over All India United Democratic Front’s Badruddin Ajmal. The margin of Hussain’s victory (over 10 lakh) in the state has renewed hope among the Congress workers in the state.

Badruddin Ajmal’s messiah-like image among Assam’s Bengali-migrants was severely dented as Congress old horse Rakibul Hussain staged a major upset in Dhubri. With the Dhubri win, the grand old party has been successful in sending across a message that Ajmal is an “old tiger” and that the AIUDF is the “B Team” of the BJP. The grand old party was successful in telling voters that they have to stop Ajmal first if they want to evict the BJP from power in the state.

How Congress changed tack

Subhrangshu Pratim Sarmah, an Assam-based scholar, attributed Ajmal’s loss to his waning popularity among the Bengali speaking Muslims in the state. “The Congress leaders in the state have been successful in driving the point home that only Congress can be the true representative of the Bengali-speaking masses in the state. During the campaign, the party also managed to communicate that there is a covert understanding between BJP and the AIUDF leadership in the state.

Dhubri a byword for ‘Muslim’ vote

Dhubri--- a byword for the ‘Muslim’ vote in Assam, was meant to be about the salience of the AIUDF, Badruddin Ajmal’s party. This was used to say that the Muslim vote is cutting itself off from mainstream parties and moving to ‘Muslim parties’. But the record margin of Ajmal’s defeat, by 10.1 lakh votes – to his Congress rival Rakibul Hussain has given a new lease of life to the party, struggling to stay afloat in the state.

What could have led to Ajmal’s shock defeat?

The reasons behind this unprecedented loss are multifaceted. Political observers point to growing dissatisfaction among the electorate over Ajmal’s leadership style, which some critics have described as increasingly out of touch with the needs and aspirations of his constituents. The broader national political climate, marked by the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its strong influence in Assam, has also played a crucial role. The BJP’s targeted campaigns and promises of development may have swayed voters who previously supported Ajmal.

Ajmal’s loss is not just a personal setback but also a significant blow to the AIUDF. The party now faces the challenge of rebuilding its base and reconnecting with voters in Dhubri and beyond. As Ajmal steps back to assess the reasons for his defeat and chart a path forward, the political landscape in Assam appears poised for further changes and realignments.

Regaining lost ground

Dhubri is considered the heartland of Bengali-speaking migrant Muslims. It shares a border with Bangladesh. For Hussain, who holds sway in parts of central Assam, it is his maiden parliamentary election. Since decades, the Congress had been influential in Dhubri and the adjoining Goalpara and Barpeta districts. Then, it slowly lost the space to the AIUDF. Hussain’s win could well be the first step for the Congress towards regaining the lost ground.

A quick look at BJP’s and Congress’ Northeast tally

The saffron party won 13 seats while its allies in Assam, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United Peoples Party Liberal (UPPL) bagged one seat each, taking the NDA tally to 15. On the other hand, Congress won seven seats. One seat each was won by the Voice of People Party (VPP) and Zoram Peoples Movement (ZPM), regional parties which are not part of the NDA or the INDIA bloc.

Other green shots for Assam Congress

Congress deputy leader in the outgoing Lok Sabha member, Gaurav Gogoi, won the Jorhat seat, defeating sitting BJP MP Topon Kumar Gogoi. “This is a victory of the people and democracy. I would like to thank all voters, especially the new ones. This is the new beginning for Assam and its people,” Gaurav Gogoi said. Pradyut Bordoloi, the incumbent parliamentarian from Nagaon has successfully defended his turf.