If the exit polls are accurate on June 4, the political landscape of Andhra Pradesh will undergo a significant transformation. This could lead to a revival of Chandrababu Naidu and his party, Telugu Desam. At the same time, Jana Sena, after a decade of waiting, might see another member of the mega family take the lead. The BJP, the other hand, could shift its focus to the 2029 elections. The incumbent chief minister, Jagan Mohan Reddy, could face a substantial setback, potentially altering the state's governance.
The exit polls announced by various agencies and some national media outlets on June 1 indicated a clear edge for the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena Party alliance over the ruling YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh in the 2024 elections.
Andhra Pradesh exit poll predictions: Highlights
Chandrababu Naidu's revival
For Chandrababu Naidu, a possible victory would be a new beginning. A loss could have meant the end of his political career, especially considering his past electoral defeats and constant attacks from the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). Naidu had announced that the 2024 assembly elections would be his "last" chance if he did not win power in the state.
In 2021, Naidu left the assembly, promising to return when he regained power. His departure was in response to alleged insults and personal attacks against his wife by YSRCP members. He later held a press conference and broke down in tears, stating that his wife's reputation had been tarnished. Naidu, who has served as chief minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh and after its division for 14 years, has yet to experience recent electoral success. The TDP chief has also faced challenges due to the defection of its leaders to the ruling YSRCP.
Naidu is known as a charismatic leader who is recognised for his development work. However, the road ahead will be difficult. Due to the numerous freebies offered by the Jagan Mohan Reddy government, the state is heavily in debt. Even ten years after the formation of Andhra Pradesh and its separation from Telangana, a proper state capital still needs to be established. Naidu has stated that if elected, TDP's top priority will be restoring all institutions and instilling confidence in the people before implementing any programs. He emphasised that TDP is a brand for development, which it will prove once again, adding that Jagan has damaged the state's ecosystem.
If Naidu comes to power, his biggest challenge will be to convince his alliance partner, the BJP, at the centre, to grant special status to the state, a promise that TDP has always claimed the YSRCP still needs to fulfil.
It will be a significant challenge for Naidu to put the state's finances on track if he comes to power. The state is under a massive debt burden of Rs 13.50 lakh crore, which indirectly equates to a burden of Rs 7 lakh on each family and Rs 2 lakh on each individual. The current government is struggling to manage its finances. Naidu's party and allies have also promised substantial freebies, including free travel for women in State-run RTC buses, three unrestrained gas cylinders per year, and Rs 20,000 investment support for farmers annually. Additional schemes such as the Saubhagya and 4P partnership schemes have been announced, promising subsidies for small and medium enterprises and start-ups and transforming the poor into the rich.
The manifesto also includes:
Jagan Mohan Reddy, the current chief minister, has gone all out to retain the coveted state in the upcoming elections. Expecting dissatisfaction from the public, Jagan either removed or relocated sitting MLAs. However, when he didn't see the expected support from the public, he went on a 22-day bus tour across the state in March. While the tour did help garner some support, there is expected to be tough competition in the northern Andhra districts from the NDA, particularly in Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, and Srikakulam, which have 34 Assembly seats. The party controls most constituencies in the southern part of the state, Rayalaseema, where the YSRCP had a clean sweep in 2019.
A loss in the 2024 polls could be a significant setback for Jagan. It could be challenging for him to maintain his support base and vote bank, which historically belongs to the Congress in Andhra Pradesh. There is also concern that an election defeat could diminish his standing with the central government. Moreover, Chandrababu Naidu might push his NDA partner to expedite old cases against Jagan and possibly not extend bail to the YCP leader. TDP would likely seek retribution against Jagan for Naidu's arrest. The elections in Andhra Pradesh were highly polarised and divided along caste lines. Although Naidu does not intend to be vindictive, his followers may push for it.
If this situation unfolds, Jagan’s sister, YS Sharmila, the Congress state head and contested from Kadapa, may try to capture the voter base her late father, YS Rajsekhar Reddy, had influenced. New dynamics may lead to significant defections among YSRCP leaders and followers.
'Power Star' game
Pawan Kalyan, also known as the "Power Star," is the founder and chief of the Jana Sena party, and he has a significant fan base in the Tollywood film industry. Despite his elder brother, megastar Chiranjeevi, being a prominent figure in the film industry, Kalyan has made a name for himself outside his brother's shadow. However, he has yet to achieve significant success in politics. The Jana Sena Party was founded just before the 2014 elections but did not contest in that election. Five years later, the party won only one out of 137 assembly seats and fielded candidates. Kalyan lost both seats he contested, and the party received a vote share of just over five per cent. The Jana Sena Party nominated 21 assembly candidates in the current election and contested two Lok Sabha constituencies.
Despite this, Kalyan has gained significant visibility, with his presence overshadowing that of Naidu. There is a growing enthusiasm among his party members, and the YSRCP is mobilising its entire machinery to ensure that he loses again, making him the most talked-about figure in the state. One analyst has described him as the "man of the match," irrespective of the election outcome. If Kalyan and his party win, it will testify to his ten-year-long patient struggle. If successful, he will be the second person in his family to achieve this, after his elder brother, who became a cabinet minister in UPA II.
However, it is still being determined what role Kalyan will play if the alliance under Naidu comes to power. Some speculate that he could be made deputy CM, but others close to him envision a more significant role as a kingmaker and eventually a position in the central government. Analysts have expressed concern about the potential conflict between two top leaders sharing the same space. For now, Kalyan has remained tight-lipped about his future role.
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