INDIA
Op Sindoor: For now, all is quiet on the western front
The most important outcome of the 87-hour military confrontation in May between India and Pakistan is that the latter will now have to think twice about the cost of pursuing terror as a strategic tool. An analyst connects the dots in the conflict and locates it in a larger strategic context
TRENDS
Baisaran meadow massacre fits a pattern; China factor squeezes India’s options
Underlying pattern of terror strikes in J&K have been visible for a while; target based on religion to widen sectarian fault lines. India’s military options this time are constrained by the China factor. Not only is the Indian army required to safeguard the Ladakh frontier, stretching its resources, it also has to account for active Chinese support to Pakistan through intelligence sharing
BUSINESS
Pakistani terrorists exploit lack of 'reception area' in Kathua
Four policemen, so far, have been killed in an ongoing operation in Kathua. Unlike the hinterland of the LoC, there is in Kathua no "reception area", or a tight, networked grid spearheaded by the counter-insurgency force, the Rashtriya Rifles (RR), to detect, ambush and eliminate Pakistani terrorists who sneak past the regular Infantry formations placed on the LoC
INDIA
Jammu’s simmering terror activity
In Kathua, civilians, who are neither informers nor Village Defence Guards, but wandering in the dense jungles for livelihoods or travel pose a threat to terrorists when they stumble upon them or their hideouts. It has a led to a series of killings. Security forces can’t let their guard down
BUSINESS
Seven terror strikes in Kashmir Valley in 18 days is an attempt to undermine democratic process
An effective elected government in J&K is critical to build on counter-terror successes of the last few years. A shift in attacks to the Valley from the prior Jammu-centric approach aims to drive a wedge between the security establishment and the democratic set-up. There’s no room for complacency as terrorism planners shift focus based on available ‘operational space’
BUSINESS
Indian forces have clamped down on terror activity in Jammu, but durable success is a long game
The run-up to the assembly elections was relatively quiet. But the problem is not over. There’s a larger game plan afoot to increase infiltration of terrorists by constantly testing India’s security grid. Compounding the challenge for security forces is the use of encrypted Chinese equipment for communication between terrorists on the ground and their Pakistan-based handlers
POLITICS
In J&K, India combats more than a two-front challenge through the China-Pakistan overlap
India has had to divert military resources to the LAC as it has been war-gamed as the more formidable of the two strategic challenges. In the process, Pakistan has got a strategic shield to its proxy war in J&K
