BUSINESS
Trump 2.0: Great Disorder Under Heaven
Behind all the bombast, behind all the tough talk and aggressive posturing, is the imperative to preserve America’s hegemony and its economic dominance
BUSINESS
RBI research reveals economic ripple effects of geopolitical shocks on India
A one standard deviation shock to the global GPRI can lead to a trade volume decline of 1.0 percentage point and a capital flow cutback of 0.3 percentage points
BUSINESS
Change in IMF forecasts reflects exceptional performance of US economy, dollar
The forecast for India in 2025 has remained the same over the course of the past year
BUSINESS
Quick Take | Does the CPI inflation print for December point to a rate cut in February?
With fiscal stimulus likely to come down further in the 2025-26 Budget, monetary policy will have to do the heavy lifting to support growth
BUSINESS
Is industrial production rising or falling? Depends on what you’re looking at
The picture painted by the month-on-month data is completely different from the year-on-year figures. We badly need seasonally adjusted data
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | What are the drivers of economic growth in 2024-25?
Private consumption is expected to account for 4.1 percentage points of the 6.4 percent GDP growth this fiscal year
BUSINESS
GDP estimate shows Budget 2025-26 should boost capex, not push consumption
BUSINESS
Are wars good for the stock market?
The MSCI equity indices of both Israel and Ukraine were up handsomely in 2024
BUSINESS
The Household Consumption Survey data for 2023-24 doesn’t fit premiumisation narrative
Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) of the top 5 percent of households in urban India fell from Rs20824 in 2022-23 to Rs 20310 in 2023-24, while in rural India it went down from Rs10501 to Rs10137 over the same period
BUSINESS
The Nehru Narrative: What the economic numbers say
Nehru’s record on economic growth was worse than that of most comparable countries
BUSINESS
Markets too bullish for comfort, says global fund manager survey
The Bank of America survey of global fund managers says that the only times cash allocation among global fund managers was near December 2024 levels were back in January -March 2002 and in February 2011, which were huge tops in risk assets. Wednesday’s sharp fall in the markets supports the BofA view
BUSINESS
Flash PMI indicates growth is accelerating at the end of 2024
The PMI survey shows that demand at the end of the year is strong, animal spirits are high and jobs are plentiful while inflation pressures are subsiding. It’s a wonderful start to 2025
BUSINESS
Fed rate cut almost a certainty this week, but next year is a different story
While a 25-basis point cut is priced in for the FOMC meeting this week, the markets are expecting a shallower easing trajectory next year and higher level of rates at the end of the loosening cycle
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Back to the 1930s
The state of the world at present echoes that of the 1930s, this time with nukes
BUSINESS
November retail inflation strengthens case for February rate cut
Not only did food prices fall by 0.6 percent from the previous month, but overall retail prices too were also lower by 0.15 percent
BUSINESS
Book Review | The Rocky Road to Prosperity
Prosenjit Datta’s book is a rare find in these lamentably polarised times—it is an impartial analysis that weighs the pros and cons carefully and hopes that policy makers have the good sense to make our dream of becoming a developed economy come true in our lifetimes
BUSINESS
Are Indian businesses getting smaller?
The share of employment in non-farm establishments employing 5 workers or less has gone up in the past five years. Around three-quarters of workers in the non-agricultural sector are employed in businesses having 9 workers or less
BUSINESS
Quick Take | PMI data for November signals to the MPC that growth is fine, but core inflation is rising
The PMI data for November, which track month-on-month changes, are very upbeat and in marked contrast to the Q2 GDP numbers
BUSINESS
What were the drivers of growth in Q2?
Out of the GVA growth of 5.6 percent in Q2, the contribution of services was 4.1 percentage points. The rest of the economy contributed the balance 1.5 percentage points. That’s how lopsided growth was in Q2
BUSINESS
Q2 miracle: when growth slumped, the unemployment rate came down
While real GDP growth fell from 6.8 percent in Q1, FY 25 to 5.4 percent in Q2, the urban unemployment rate improved from 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent, according to the quarterly PLFS survey
BUSINESS
Did RBI’s tightening of credit regulations lead to the growth slowdown in Q2?
Growth in non-food bank credit outstanding has been slowly decelerating and it has come down from 13.6 percent in August to 11.5 percent in October and further to 11.15 percent by mid-November
BUSINESS
Flash PMI shows growth accelerating, but so is core inflation
HSBC Flash PMI survey says “the rate of inflation was sharp and the fastest in just under 12 years. Firms suggested that demand strength allowed them to pass on additional cost burdens to their clients”
BUSINESS
We need a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in India too
Total government expenditure in India, at 29.1 percent of GDP in 2023, is quite high among emerging Asian nations. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam all have much lower government spending to GDP ratios than India
BUSINESS
Should monetary policy be hostage to vegetable prices?
The overall CPI index has moved up from 147.2 in October 2019 to 196.8 in October 2024, an increase of a third in 5 years. And the Food & Beverage index has gone up by 40 percent over the period. Small wonder that the consumption of the masses has been hit
