BUSINESS
Is the bull market in ‘detox’ or melting down?
Self-reinforcing momentum carried US equities for two years. Now, inertia is pulling them in the wrong direction
BUSINESS
Trump fanned inflation fears. Now they haunt his presidency
Consumer expectations about price increases can be self-fulfilling
BUSINESS
The inflation genie is moving to the White House
The consumer price index suggests that the jump in expectations for price gains might not be over, and tariffs won’t help
BUSINESS
The US economy is in a sweet spot. Why risk it?
The nation is experiencing a dream combination of strong growth and low inflation Jonathan Levin
BUSINESS
US Federal Reserve’s uncertain destination troubles the bond market
The central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and yet 10-year Treasury yields, a benchmark for mortgages, actually went up
BUSINESS
Powell’s inertia leaves the US Fed in a bind after CPI surprise
Policymakers missed a golden opportunity to cut rates in July. Now, they will be slowed down by bad inflation optics
BUSINESS
Stock-selloff fears for September are overblown
Just because the historical data exhibits some seasonal softness doesn’t mean it will continue into the future
BUSINESS
Wall Street strategists face their own short squeeze
It’s the time of year, when stock market prognosticators rush to boost their S&P 500 forecasts — and 2024 will be no different
WORLD
Harris has a manufacturing record Trump craves. She should use it
The vice president is too focused on populist inflation proposals. She should brag more about the investment boom she helped foster with Biden
BUSINESS
Why 818,000 fewer jobs signal a healing economy. Don’t panic
A year ago, commentators were concerned that payrolls were growing too fast, keeping inflation elevated. It turns out the labour market was just right
BUSINESS
Insiders’ ‘other’ trades are just too profitable
Executives and board members must disclose stock purchases and sales, but new research shows opaque coding to be lucrative and flying under the radar
BUSINESS
Federal Reserve’s critics on inflation should now champion July cut
Policymakers were roasted for delaying interest rate increases in 2021 and 2022 as prices surged. Now, they risk falling behind the curve with cuts, too
BUSINESS
The US Federal Reserve should cut rates now. Sadly, it won’t
A stellar CPI report Thursday confirms that inflation is just about slayed. Now, policymakers need to think about the labour market
BUSINESS
Can’t find a job after graduating? Move to Bolivia
Tough labour markets present an opportunity to branch out and take chances. It worked out for me in 2008 in an unlikely place
BUSINESS
Disinflation is happening in all the right places
The US consumer price index is still a fog of lags, imputations and general noise, but the categories that matter are extremely encouraging
BUSINESS
High rates forever is now the consensus. Be skeptical
The economy has been largely unresponsive to Fed policy moves, but that doesn’t mean the US will be permanently rate-insensitive
BUSINESS
US: Inflation worrywarts are crashing the party
With no recession in sight, commentators are swinging back to concerns about a too-hot economy pressuring prices higher
BUSINESS
JP Morgan's Kolanovic has the chutzpah Wall Street strategists needs
One of the most frustrating features of today’s Wall Street is the surfeit of homogenous research that says a lot without saying very much at all. The majority of sell-side equity strategists tend to offer relatively predictable calls — typically within 5-10% of the median — and only change their views when the rest of the herd does as well, often when market moves leave little choice
BUSINESS
Warren Buffett reminds us of Charlie Munger's greatest investment advice
After Buffett got control of Berkshire, Munger advised him to "add to it wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices and give up buying fair businesses at wonderful prices". This approach that embraced paying up for the right high-quality companies (including, today, a massive stake in Apple Inc.) has worked well for many investors
BUSINESS
US GDP: Bet against the US super consumer and lose
Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3% annualised rate in the fourth quarter, exceeding every forecast compiled by Bloomberg and helping validate record stock prices. And it’s largely happened on the back of strong consumption. The numbers cap a year of positive economic surprises that defied predictions of imminent doom with policy rates at two-decade highs
BUSINESS
The Charlie Munger principles to invest and live by
He advocated for learning “all the big ideas in all the big disciplines,” and his talks were peppered with references to Confucius, Charles Darwin, Benjamin Franklin, Isaac Newton and even Mozart. In a way, his sweeping academic interests seemed to mirror Berkshire’s diverse portfolio
BUSINESS
S&P 500’s busted winning streak was a mirage anyway
The S&P 500 Index closed in the red Thursday, blowing its widely-hyped chance at a nine-day winning streak, which would have been its best run since 2004. But the run shouldn't have mattered in an otherwise anemic stock market fueled by trends in bonds, not expectations about profits. Fittingly, a lousy 30-year bond auction spoiled it
BUSINESS
Buffett’s $157 billion cash pile isn’t an ominous sign
For some, it is a sign from the Oracle of Omaha himself that a global recession was near. For others, it suggested that the eminent 93-year-old investor had lost his knack for finding deals. In reality, it’s just Buffett being Buffett, exhibiting his usual restraint in a market without many bargains
BUSINESS
Bonds as diversifiers aren’t dead — just dormant
Stock-bond correlations are positive again, making many observers question conventional investing wisdom
