Why Trump’s economy is showing signs of trouble ahead of the midterms

Why Trump’s economy is showing signs of trouble ahead of the midterms

US President Donald Trump built his political comeback on the promise of economic revival, but new data suggests that advantage may be slipping away. The US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, with June’s figures revised downward to show a net loss of 13,000 jobs. It was the first negative monthly reading since December 2020, raising fears of a stalling labour market as the 2026 midterms approach, the New York Times reported.

Signs of economic trouble

The weak jobs report was compounded by stubborn inflation, which ticked upward over the summer. Trump’s steep tariffs on imported goods, a cornerstone of his economic strategy, have driven up costs of essentials such as furniture, appliances and clothing. Manufacturing activity has now been contracting for six consecutive months, signalling deeper weakness in industrial output. For voters already anxious about the high cost of living, these indicators paint a troubling picture.

Public confidence wanes

The economic mood is souring. A Gallup poll released in late August showed Trump’s approval rating on the economy falling to 37 percent, down from 42 percent in February and far below the 52 percent average during his first term. Another poll by The Economist and YouGov found inflation to be voters’ top concern, with only 34 percent approving of Trump’s handling of it. Gallup also reported that 63 percent of Americans now believe the economy is getting worse, a level of pessimism comparable to the pre-election gloom that weighed down Democrats in 2024.

Democrats see an opening

Democrats, still smarting from their losses last year, view the shifting mood as a political opening. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries accused Trump of “dangerous one-man command policies” that have worsened the cost of living. Democrats are betting that relentless focus on inflation, tariffs, and Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve will resonate with voters. Party strategists note that in 2024, the economy was the top issue in every pre-election poll — and Trump outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris among those who believed the economy was weak.

The White House response

The Trump administration insists it can weather the downturn. Officials argue that the slowing labour market could prompt the Federal Reserve to finally cut interest rates, giving the economy a boost. Campaign veterans say Trump excels at shifting the narrative and may steer voter attention toward other issues such as trade, immigration and crime, which he has already highlighted as central themes for Republicans in 2026. “Don’t assume Trump will be reacting to the economy,” said his former campaign manager Bill Stepien. “He will be trying to drive the discussion in his direction.”

Crime as a counterpunch

Trump himself has signalled that he intends to pivot hard toward crime and law-and-order themes in the midterm races. He has expanded the use of federal troops to crack down on violence in Washington and hinted at similar measures in Chicago and New Orleans. By amplifying crime as a national crisis, Trump hopes to replicate the success of his 2024 campaign, which made tariffs and border enforcement central to the political debate.

Trump’s economic record, once a pillar of his political strength, is showing cracks. Persistently high prices, sluggish job growth and declining public confidence could leave him vulnerable as midterms near. Whether he can shift the national conversation away from the economy — or whether Democrats succeed in making it the central issue — will likely determine the balance of power in Congress next year.