Why the Ukraine war has intensified during Trump’s first year back in office

Why the Ukraine war has intensified during Trump’s first year back in office

• Civilian casualties in Ukraine rose 20 percent in 2025
• US aid to Ukraine dropped sharply under Trump's new strategy
• Russian attacks and territorial gains rose amid negotiations

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When Donald Trump campaigned for a return to the White House, he repeatedly said he could end the war in Ukraine in a single day. One year into his second term, the conflict not only continues but, by several key measures, has grown more brutal for Ukrainians, the New York Times reported.

Civilian casualties rose sharply in 2025. According to United Nations data, more than 2,500 Ukrainian civilians were killed last year, a roughly 20 percent increase compared with 2024 and the highest toll since 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Long-range drone attacks multiplied. Ballistic missile strikes on city centres became more frequent. Ukraine’s already fragile power grid was battered during one of the harshest winters in more than a decade.

So what changed?

A shift in Washington’s approach

After taking office in January 2025, Trump altered the US strategy toward the war. He reopened direct engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin while distancing Washington from Kyiv. US aid to Ukraine fell dramatically compared with the previous year, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Weapons transfers slowed unless paid for by Ukraine or its allies.

At the same time, Russia accelerated domestic production of missiles, drones and artillery shells. Analysts say Moscow used the expanded arsenal to press its advantage on the battlefield while talks were underway.

Trump has argued that traditional Western isolation of Putin failed to stop the war. He has said that his personal rapport with the Russian leader gives him leverage. He also imposed sanctions aimed at cutting Russian oil revenue. Yet those measures have not translated into a visible shift in Kremlin strategy.

Negotiations without breakthroughs

The administration succeeded in getting Russian and Ukrainian delegations back to the table. Talks resumed in various formats, including trilateral meetings with US participation. Trump selected negotiators he described as seasoned deal makers, signalling a preference for transactional diplomacy over traditional frameworks.

But Putin has shown little sign of retreating from core objectives, which include expanding Russian control over Ukrainian territory and cementing Moscow’s influence. Deadlines publicly floated by Trump for new sanctions passed without major consequences. Meanwhile, Russian forces captured more territory in 2025 than in any year since 2022.

Ukrainian officials argue that without stronger pressure, the Kremlin sees little reason to compromise. President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly complained that US officials appear to press Kyiv harder than Moscow on concessions.

A worsening humanitarian picture

While diplomacy stretched on, the human cost mounted. Russia launched more than 53,000 long-range drones at civilian targets in 2025, according to data compiled from Ukrainian Air Force figures. Ballistic missile strikes increased threefold compared with the previous year.

The impact has been especially severe in winter. Repeated attacks left millions with limited electricity and heating. In Kyiv, residents at times had only a few hours of power a day. Businesses shuttered. Schools and offices struggled to function.

Human-rights advocates say the negotiations have focused heavily on territory and resources while sidelining the daily suffering of civilians. They argue that for Moscow, continued pressure on infrastructure and population centres strengthens its bargaining position.

The gap between promise and reality

Trump has acknowledged that resolving the war is harder than anticipated. He maintains that his engagement strategy remains the best path to peace. But for many Ukrainians, the metrics that matter are simple: safety, electricity, territory and survival.

One year into renewed negotiations, none of those indicators point to relief. The war continues, and in several respects, it has intensified.