Why Iran is seeing its biggest protests in years and what it means for the regime

Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran. (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

• Nationwide protests in Iran challenge the regime, sparked by rising prices
• Bazaar merchants joined protests, signaling deep dissatisfaction with the system
• At least 45 protesters killed; regime prepares for a possible crackdown

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For nearly two weeks now, Iran has been gripped by nationwide protests that represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic in years. Demonstrations have spread across more than 100 cities, internet access has been repeatedly cut, and rights groups say dozens of people have been killed.

What began as anger over prices has quickly turned into something much bigger: a direct challenge to the political order built around Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, CNN reported.

What triggered the protests

The immediate spark was economic.

The protests began in Tehran’s bazaars after a sudden spike in the price of basic goods such as cooking oil and chicken. In some places, items disappeared from shelves altogether. The shock came after the central bank ended a system that allowed some importers to buy dollars at a subsidised rate. Once that protection vanished, prices jumped almost overnight.

Shopkeepers responded by closing their stalls, an unusual and highly symbolic move in Iran. The bazaaris have historically been among the regime’s most reliable social and political allies.

The government tried to calm things down by offering small cash handouts, but the move failed to stop the anger from spreading.

How big are the protests?

This is the largest wave of unrest since the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in custody.

Demonstrations have reached cities across the country, including western provinces such as Ilam and Lorestan. In several places, crowds have set fires in the streets and chanted slogans directly targeting Khamenei, including “Death to Khamenei”.

Iranian state media says hundreds of police and Basij paramilitary members have been injured. A Norway-based rights group, Iran Human Rights, says at least 45 protesters, including children, have been killed, with thousands arrested. Those figures cannot be independently verified, and Iranian authorities have not published a full toll.

Why this round of unrest feels different

One reason these protests stand out is who started them.

For more than a century, Iran’s bazaar merchants have played a decisive role in political change, including the 1979 Islamic Revolution. They are widely seen as conservative and closely tied to the clerical establishment. Their decision to protest over economic policy is a warning sign for the regime.

Although their political influence is no longer what it once was, their economic importance remains huge. When the bazaar closes, it signals that something has gone badly wrong.

Since then, the protests have broadened far beyond prices, with many demonstrators calling openly for the system itself to change.

Analysts say this reflects a deeper exhaustion among Iranians after years of sanctions, corruption, mismanagement and declining living standards.

Who really runs Iran and why that matters

Iran is a theocracy. While Masoud Pezeshkian was elected president in 2024 on a platform of economic reform, his powers are limited. The real authority rests with Khamenei and the institutions loyal to him, including the Revolutionary Guards.

Pezeshkian has spoken of the need for unity and patience, but many of the people now protesting are the very working- and middle-class voters he promised to help.

Years of inflation, currency collapse, environmental stress and poor governance have left large parts of society deeply disillusioned.

The Revolutionary Guards have now declared that preserving the system is their “red line”, a signal that the state is preparing for a sustained crackdown if necessary.

The role of the opposition and exiles

Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, has publicly backed the protests and called for coordinated nationwide action. Some videos from demonstrations show monarchist slogans, but how widespread that support is remains unclear.

Most analysts say Iran’s opposition remains fragmented and lacks a unified leadership or clear roadmap for what comes next.

What unites many protesters is not a shared political programme, but a shared sense that the current system has failed.

What Trump and Khamenei are saying

US President Donald Trump has issued repeated warnings to Tehran, saying there would be severe consequences if security forces start killing protesters. He has said the US would not send ground troops but has openly threatened military action.

Khamenei, in his first public remarks since the unrest began, blamed the United States for stirring up trouble and told Trump to “focus on the problems of his own country”.

He warned that the Islamic Republic would not back down and accused “agitators” of trying to destabilise Iran.

Where this could be heading

Many experts believe these protests, whatever their immediate outcome, mark another serious blow to the regime’s already weakened legitimacy.

The state still controls powerful security forces and has shown in the past that it is willing to use them. But each new wave of unrest appears broader, angrier and harder to contain.

As one analyst put it, coercion is increasingly the only tool the system has left. The question is how long that will be enough.