
A court ruling against US President Donald Trump on his sweeping tariff regime may grab headlines, but it is unlikely to end the tariff saga. Instead, it could merely force the administration to change tactics. For countries like India, which face the direct economic impact of Trump’s trade policy, that means prolonged uncertainty rather than relief.
Legal experts and economists say that even if the courts strike down Trump’s preferred tariff mechanism, the administration has several alternative legal routes available. These options could allow Washington to keep duties in place or reimpose them under different authorities, prolonging trade friction well beyond the courtroom.
Why a court loss may not stop tariffs
At the heart of the legal challenge is Trump’s reliance on emergency powers and executive authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval. If courts rule that these powers were exceeded, the administration has already signalled it will pivot rather than retreat.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has openly acknowledged this. He said there are at least three other mechanisms under the 1962 Trade Act that could be used to sustain tariffs even if the current approach fails judicial scrutiny.
This signals that the administration views tariffs not as a single legal strategy but as a policy objective that can be pursued through multiple statutory pathways.
The fallback options on the table
According to earlier reporting by Moneycontrol, Trump’s team has at least five possible fallback options if courts strike down the current tariff framework.
One option is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs on national security grounds. Trump has already used this provision in the past to impose duties on steel and aluminium imports. Reinvoking Section 232 would require new investigations, but the administration could argue that imports from certain countries threaten US industrial or energy security.
Another route is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorises retaliatory tariffs against countries deemed to engage in unfair trade practices. This provision was the backbone of Trump’s trade war with China during his first term and could be revived against other trading partners.
A third option is Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows temporary tariffs of up to 15 percent for balance-of-payments reasons. Though time-limited, this provision could be used to buy time while other legal avenues are prepared.
The administration could also lean on safeguard measures under Section 201, which permit temporary import restrictions if a surge in imports causes serious injury to domestic industries. While these measures require procedural steps, they remain legally viable.
Finally, Trump could attempt to push Congress for statutory backing, although this is seen as the least certain path given political divisions.
Economists expect Trump to pivot, not pause
Market watchers broadly agree that a court ruling against the tariffs would change form, not intent. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told CNBC, “If the court blocks the tariffs, the administration is going to find workarounds. President Trump is very ambitious in getting this agenda through despite potential controversies that could surround such a decision.”
That assessment reflects a wider consensus that Trump views tariffs as a core political and economic tool, not a negotiable policy experiment.
Why India remains exposed
For India, the stakes are significant. Trump has already imposed two rounds of tariffs on Indian goods and repeatedly threatened further action, including penalties linked to India’s purchases of Russian crude oil. Even if courts temporarily block one set of tariffs, alternative legal routes could quickly bring new duties into force.
This uncertainty complicates trade negotiations between Washington and New Delhi. Indian exporters face difficulty planning supply chains, pricing, and contracts when tariff exposure can change overnight based on executive action or legal reinterpretation.
The uncertainty also weakens the effectiveness of any short-term relief India might gain from a favourable court verdict. Businesses and policymakers cannot assume stability if the administration is openly preparing contingency plans.
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