In the run-up to Saturday’s US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the US Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence told Reuters.
The assessments, produced over the past two weeks, examined possible outcomes inside Iran following a US intervention and evaluated whether a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic, a goal that has become increasingly explicit in Washington, the sources said.
The reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, the sources told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
According to the sources, the intelligence analysis broadly explored succession dynamics in the event of Khamenei’s death, including the likelihood that power would shift toward senior figures within the IRGC.
The IRGC is an elite military force tasked with safeguarding Iran’s clerical system of governance. It wields significant political, economic and military influence within the Islamic Republic.
The assessments formed part of internal deliberations as US policymakers weighed whether to proceed with direct strikes on Iranian targets.
President Donald Trump has in recent weeks signalled that the United States was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, though he has not outlined specific plans regarding post-intervention leadership.
In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a “terrorist regime” and urged the Iranian people to take over the government. He said US military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.
The US and Israeli assault followed weeks of internal debate within the US government over whether to strike Iran amid protests that erupted in December.
US officials had also attempted to revive nuclear negotiations with Tehran in recent weeks in an effort to avert military action.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed top congressional lawmakers known as the “Gang of Eight” last week, informing them that a US operation was likely to proceed but that Trump could still reverse course if nuclear talks succeeded, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Those talks, held in Geneva, did not produce an agreement.
According to the sources, Rubio notified the Gang of Eight on Friday night that an operation to attack Iran was likely to commence within hours, while reiterating that Trump retained discretion to halt the plan.
The Pentagon subsequently named the strikes “Operation Epic Fury.” Reuters reported that early waves of the operation targeted Iranian officials, including attempts to strike senior leadership figures. An Israeli official told Reuters that both Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were targeted, though the results were unclear. Another source told Reuters that Khamenei had been moved from Tehran to a secure location.
The CIA’s assessments were prepared as part of the broader intelligence review conducted before authorising the operation.
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