West Asia on edge as US war with Iran intensifies: What's next? The likely scenarios

• US-Israel strike kills Iran's leader, igniting regional conflict
• Oil prices rise as Hormuz Strait closes, sparking inflation concerns
• US and Israel aim for quick conflict, but uncertainty remains

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West Asia has plunged into chaos and uncertainty after a decisive joint strike by US and Israel on Iran last week turned the region into a war theatre, with missiles and drones flying thick and fast across multiple fronts.

The strikes led to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a string of top Iranian leaders, drawing Tehran into one of the worst conflicts in recent history and embroilling several Gulf countries into the crossfire.

Iran war with US and Israel: Live Updates

The war-like conflict has thrown the global markets into a tizzy, pushed up oil prices after the shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, sparked stock sell-offs and fuelled inflation fears worldwide. Airfares are also expected to surge with rising global oil prices pushing up the cost of aviation turbine fuel (ATF), the single largest expense for air carriers.

Both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have signalled that the conflict will not last too long. Trump pegged the timeline at four weeks while Netanyahu said it will be "quick and decisive" and not an "endless war". However, uncertainty prevails over the exact trajectory of the war: will it end with a new Iranian leadership in place? Can Iran's forces continue to mount a stiff resistance? Here's what may happen in the coming days:

Sustained but calibrated military campaign

President Donald Trump has projected a “four to five weeks” timeline, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said “this campaign will continue as long as it is needed.”

If that posture holds, the near term (next few days) is likely to see:

- Continued US-Israel strikes on IRGC assets, air defences and nuclear-linked facilities

- Iran continues missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases in the Gulf

- Persistent risks to energy infrastructure and shipping lanes

This would amount to a controlled but intense regional war — heavy on air power and standoff weapons, but short of a full-scale ground invasion. The fear of a wider, multi-front escalation involving Lebanon, Iraq or the Red Sea theatre also remains.

Moreover, there are concerns around the rapid depletion of American munitions, including air defence interceptors and precision strike weapons. Analysts warn that US interceptors are being consumed faster than they can be replaced, raising worries about sustaining supplies not only in West Asia but also in other critical theatres such as South Korea and Guam. Nonetheless, Trump has boasted that US and allies have "virtually unlimited" supply of weapons to fight wars "forever" and "successfully".

Regime survival vs regime change battle

With Iran’s top leadership decapitated, the fight is now existential for Tehran’s power structure.

Analysts say the regime will aim to:

- Project continuity by quickly installing a new supreme leader

- Retaliate enough to show strength without inviting total collapse

- Suppress internal dissent while preventing fractures within the security establishment

On the other side, Washington and Tel Aviv appear focused on degrading military capability to the point where either the regime weakens internally or alternative leadership structures emerge.

However, without “boots on the ground”, forced regime change remains uncertain. The most plausible short-term outcome is instability behind the scenes but outward cohesion — at least initially.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah, is also hoping to lead the country, positioning himself as a likely head of a successor government. He has not been endorsed by Trump.

Narrow diplomatic window

Despite ongoing strikes, Trump has said: “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk.”

Iran’s security leadership has publicly rejected negotiations for now, but wars often create backchannels.

A potential breakthrough depends on:

- Whether Tehran calculates that continued retaliation risks systemic collapse

- Whether Washington feels it has achieved enough military leverage

- Pressure from Gulf states facing economic and infrastructure fallout

If talks materialise, they are likely to centre on ceasefire terms, missile limits and regional de-escalation and not an immediate comprehensive reset. Plus, it will also singularly rely on one core guarantee from Iran: that it won't build nuclear weapons.

But that seems to be a long haul battle since US vice president JD Vance said on Monday that Trump wants a long-term guarantee that Iran would never pursue nuclear weapons capability.

"The President is not going to rest until he accomplishes that all-important objective of ensuring that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon," he said. He asserted that US does not want "a multiyear conflict with no clear end in sight and no clear objective".

And then, he said that US wants a "friendly regime in Iran" which is willing to work with the Trump administration — suggesting that beyond the battlefield, the longer-term objective may be political realignment rather than merely military containment.