War-risk surges, tankers idle: Why the Hormuz disruption could hit India’s fuel bill next

Shipping suspensions, naval warnings and surging freight rates expose India’s dependence on the world’s most fragile oil artery

• Oil shipments halted in Strait of Hormuz after US-Israel strikes
• India faces risk as half its crude imports transit Hormuz
• Shipping delays, higher costs, and market volatility expected

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Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. For India, about half its crude imports, around 2.6 million barrels per day in January-February 2026, transit that narrow waterway.

In the past 24 hours, that artery has turned into a pressure point.

Following US–Israel airstrikes on Iran under 'Operation Epic Fury' and Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, major oil producers and trading houses have suspended shipments through Hormuz. Trading desks told Reuters that vessels would “stay put for several days”. Maritime authorities, including the US Navy, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), Greece’s shipping ministry and India’s Directorate General of Shipping, have advised extreme caution or avoidance of Gulf waters.

The result: tankers idling off Oman, LNG carriers slowing or turning back, freight rates surging and oil markets bracing for volatility when trading resumes.

This is not yet a blockade. But even the fear of disruption is reshaping flows.

What exactly has happened

On February 28, US and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian targets. Within hours, Iranian missiles and drones reportedly struck US bases in the Gulf region.

Shipping markets reacted immediately.

Reuters reported that “some oil majors and top trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and LNG shipments via the Strait of Hormuz”. No companies were officially named, but trading sources confirmed delays to large cargoes scheduled to transit the strait. Kpler data showed at least 11 LNG tankers in ballast slowing or reversing near Hormuz.

Naval and maritime authorities escalated warnings:

• The US Navy declared a military operations zone across the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the North Arabian Sea, saying it could not guarantee merchant vessel safety.
• Greece instructed its flagged ships to avoid the Gulf and Hormuz.
• UKMTO advised heightened vigilance.
• India’s DG Shipping urged caution and avoidance of Iranian waters.
• Insurers simultaneously prepared for war-risk premium hikes, anticipating higher claims exposure.

Even without a declared closure, the message to commercial shipping was clear: proceed at your own risk.

Why this matters disproportionately for India

About 50 percent of its crude imports, roughly 2.6 million barrels per day, moved through Hormuz in early 2026. Key suppliers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait rely heavily on this route to ship to Indian refiners.

Saudi Arabia operates the East–West pipeline to the Red Sea. The UAE has the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline that bypasses Hormuz. Together, they can redirect several million barrels per day, but far less than the roughly 20 million barrels normally flowing through the strait.

If tankers avoid Hormuz entirely, voyages may reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. That adds 10–15 days each way, raising fuel costs, charter expenses and tightening vessel availability. Shipping analyst Jakob Larsen of BIMCO has noted that some owners may prefer rerouting rather than entering high-risk waters.

For Indian refiners, longer voyages mean higher landed crude costs. In the short term, pump prices may not immediately spike. But sustained disruption would raise import bills and put pressure on retail fuel pricing.

This is not the first Hormuz scare, but the stakes are higher

The Strait of Hormuz has periodically become a flashpoint: tanker seizures in 2019, drone attacks on Saudi facilities, and previous US–Iran standoffs.

What makes this moment different is the scale and immediacy of coordinated military action.

Unlike past skirmishes, shipping advisories now cover an extended maritime risk zone from the Arabian Gulf to the North Arabian Sea. Electronic navigation disruptions have also been reported.

Winners, losers and second-order effects

Energy shocks redistribute power.

Gulf exporters face immediate logistical bottlenecks. If exports slow, they risk lost market share or must absorb higher shipping costs.

Tanker operators and insurers, by contrast, benefit from elevated freight and war-risk premiums.

Pipeline operators gain relative importance as bypass routes become strategically valuable.

High oil prices, if sustained, could benefit non-Gulf producers such as US shale operators.

For India, the outcome hinges on duration. A brief pause in shipments creates volatility but manageable disruption. A prolonged standoff would widen the trade deficit, lift input costs and potentially affect inflation.

The legal and operational complications

If voyages are delayed due to war-risk declarations, charterers and cargo owners may invoke force majeure clauses. Insurers may exclude coverage in designated conflict zones. Ships linked to US or Israeli interests may face additional scrutiny or coverage constraints.

Airspace closures across parts of the Gulf have already complicated crew changes and logistics. Even temporary port disruptions affect bunkering and scheduling.

Three variables will determine the trajectory.

First, the duration and intensity of military exchanges. Continued escalation increases the probability of direct interference with shipping.

Second, whether Iran signals intent to restrict transit. Even without formal closure, threats of mines or missile deployment would likely halt most commercial traffic.

Third, how quickly diplomatic channels re-engage.