Violent protests, Saudi pact, oil shock and Afghan conflict: Why Pakistan is emerging as the biggest casualty of Iran war

File photo of Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir and PM Shebaz Sharif carrying coffin of a soldier killed during clashes with protesters in Rawalpindi on November 26, 2024.

Pakistan faces multiple crises amid the Iran conflict, including deadly protests, worsening fuel shortages, economic instability, and border clashes with Afghanistan. Its foreign policy contradictions and Saudi defence pact have intensified domestic and regional pressures.

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As the conflict involving Iran spreads across West Asia, Pakistan has found itself caught in a geopolitical storm largely of its own making. While the war directly involves the United States, Israel and Iran, its ripple effects have hit Pakistan harder than many countries that are actually involved in the fighting.

From deadly protests on its streets to a worsening fuel crisis, a fragile economy and a simultaneous border conflict with Afghanistan, Islamabad is now grappling with multiple crises at once. The situation has exposed the contradictions in Pakistan’s foreign policy and the precarious position of its leadership. Just months after signing a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and positioning itself as a leader of the Muslim world, Pakistan now faces a difficult balancing act between Gulf allies, Iran and the United States. The result has been chaos at home and growing economic pressure.

Deadly protests erupt across Pakistan

One of the most striking consequences of the war has been the unrest within Pakistan itself. Demonstrations linked to the conflict turned violent in several cities last week.

According to Bloomberg, at least 24 people were killed in Pakistan as pro-Iran protests targeted American interests and government installations. Some local reports stated that the death toll crossed the 35-mark. The casualties represent the highest death toll among countries that are not directly involved in the conflict.

The protests highlighted how deeply the Iran crisis has polarised Pakistan’s domestic political landscape. Anger on the streets has been directed not only at the United States but also at Pakistan’s own leadership for what critics see as contradictory positions toward the conflict.

Saudi defence pact puts Pakistan in a bind

Pakistan’s predicament is partly the result of its own strategic choices.

Only a few months before the Iran war erupted, Islamabad reaffirmed a defence cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The pact signalled closer military coordination between the two countries at a time when tensions in the Gulf were already rising.

When the Iran conflict erupted, what had previously existed as a diplomatic commitment on paper suddenly carried real-world implications.

According to reports, the agreement has placed Pakistan’s military leadership in a difficult position. Supporting Saudi Arabia risks angering Iran, a neighbour with whom Pakistan shares a long and sensitive border. Staying neutral could upset Gulf allies and Washington.

This dilemma has exposed what critics describe as the strategic contradictions of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Between Muslim leadership and Washington’s expectations

Pakistan has long portrayed itself as a defender of Muslim causes globally. Yet its close security ties with the United States and Gulf monarchies complicate that narrative.

The Iran war has forced Islamabad to navigate a narrow path between these competing pressures. On one side lies the expectation from Gulf allies that Pakistan will support them against Iran. On the other lies domestic sentiment that is deeply sympathetic toward Tehran.

At the same time, Washington continues to expect cooperation from Islamabad in regional security matters.

Balancing these competing expectations has become increasingly difficult for Pakistan’s leadership.

Economic crisis worsens amid Afghanistan conflict

The Iran war has also collided with another major problem for Pakistan. The country is already facing escalating tensions with Afghanistan.

Border clashes between the two neighbours have intensified in recent weeks, threatening Pakistan’s already fragile economic recovery.

The conflict comes at a particularly sensitive moment because Pakistan is negotiating crucial financial support from the International Monetary Fund. Analysts warn that continued instability could undermine the IMF programme that Pakistan relies on to avoid a deeper financial crisis.

Fuel crisis deepens as oil prices surge

The Iran conflict has also triggered a major shock for Pakistan’s energy sector.

Rising oil prices have sharply increased the country’s import bill. Pakistan’s finance minister warned that the monthly oil import cost could rise to $600 million if the crisis continues, according to Moneycontrol.

For a country with chronically low foreign exchange reserves, the surge in energy prices is a serious problem.

Pakistan has historically struggled with limited fuel reserves and a fragile balance of payments. The new energy shock threatens to intensify those pressures.

Fuel prices have already jumped sharply. Petrol and diesel prices were increased by PKR 55 per litre, taking petrol to PKR 321.17 and diesel to PKR 335.86, according to reports.

Desperate measures to conserve energy

Faced with rising prices and fears of shortages, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has introduced emergency measures aimed at conserving fuel.

The government ordered the closure of schools and universities, introduced a four-day workweek for government offices, and encouraged employees to work from home to reduce fuel consumption.

Authorities have also asked citizens to limit unnecessary travel and conserve electricity.

Such steps underline the severity of Pakistan’s energy vulnerability. The country depends heavily on imported fuel and has little buffer against sudden spikes in global prices.

A crisis of Pakistan’s own contradictions

The Iran war has, therefore, exposed several underlying weaknesses in Pakistan’s political and economic structure.

A country that often seeks to position itself as a central player in regional geopolitics now finds itself struggling to manage crises on multiple fronts.

Between protests at home, conflict on its Afghan border, rising fuel prices and the risk of losing crucial international funding, Pakistan appears to have become one of the biggest unintended casualties of a war it was never directly part of.

For Islamabad, the challenge now is not just managing the fallout from the Iran conflict but preventing a cascade of political and economic crises from spiralling further out of control.