US net migration drops by up to 295,000 in 2025, may affect Indians

US net migration loss impacts Indian migrants

The United States saw net migration turn negative in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, as fewer people entered the country amid a sweeping immigration crackdown under President Donald Trump, according to a new report by the Brookings Institution.

Brookings estimates that net migration last year fell somewhere between minus 295,000 and minus 10,000. While immigration enforcement and removals did rise, the report makes clear that the shift was driven far more by a collapse in new arrivals than by mass deportations.

“We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year,” the study said, warning that “continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely” as policy uncertainty persists.

Researchers pointed to a mix of factors behind the decline, including fewer people entering the US, tougher enforcement, removals and voluntary departures. A key driver, the report said, was the Trump administration’s decision to suspend several humanitarian pathways — including most refugee programmes, with limited exceptions such as those involving white South Africans — along with a drop in the issuance of temporary visas.

The study estimates that between 310,000 and 315,000 people were removed from the US in 2025, a number that falls well short of figures cited by the administration. The Department of Homeland Security has said more than 600,000 removals have taken place during the crackdown.

“At 310,000 to 315,000, the 2025 removals are not much higher than the 2024 removals of around 285,000,” the report noted.

Another shift highlighted by the authors was where enforcement occurred. Unlike in 2024, most removals in 2025 were carried out by US Customs and Border Protection from within the country’s interior, rather than by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, even as ICE operations dominated political messaging and media coverage.

Looking ahead, Brookings expects removals to climb further in 2026, supported by extra funding under Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation is set to expand enforcement capacity through increased staffing and infrastructure.

The report also sounded a warning on the economic fallout. A prolonged period of negative net migration could result in “unexpectedly weak economic activity”, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant communities. Brookings estimates that consumer spending could fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion across 2025 and 2026, dragging on employment growth, GDP and overall demand.

For Indian students, skilled workers, and professionals who form a large portion of new arrivals, the trend is likely to tighten opportunities in higher education, tech jobs, and other sectors dependent on immigrant talent. The decline in migration could also affect remittances and investment flows linked to Indian communities in the US.