US intelligence doubts Iran war will topple the regime

A protest against US-Israeli attacks on Iran in San Francisco. (Credit: Al Jazeera)

• US intel: Iran's regime unlikely to collapse from strikes
• IRGC's deep control makes uprisings less likely to succeed
• Military pressure may not trigger regime change in Iran

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Before the United States and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, American intelligence agencies had already reached a sobering conclusion. Even a large-scale military attack was unlikely to topple Iran’s ruling system, the New York Times reported.

A report prepared by the National Intelligence Council shortly before the war began concluded that Iran’s political structure is deeply entrenched and unlikely to collapse quickly, according to US officials familiar with the assessment.

The finding highlights a major strategic uncertainty behind the military campaign now underway across Iran.

What the intelligence assessment said

The National Intelligence Council, which operates within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, produces long-range strategic assessments that combine the views of multiple US intelligence agencies.

According to officials briefed on the report, analysts concluded that even severe military pressure would probably not trigger regime change in Iran.

The report built on earlier assessments by the Central Intelligence Agency that examined scenarios involving the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Even in that scenario, intelligence officials believed the Islamic Republic’s governing system would likely survive.

Why the Iranian state is difficult to dislodge

The analysis centres on the powerful role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, commonly known as the IRGC. The organisation forms the backbone of Iran’s security system and has deep influence across the country’s political and economic institutions.

The Guards control elite military forces, intelligence networks and paramilitary groups such as the Basij militia. They also oversee major sectors of Iran’s economy, from energy and construction to telecommunications.

Because of that extensive reach, intelligence officials believe the organisation could maintain order even during severe political disruption.

This structure makes spontaneous uprisings far less likely to succeed.

Scepticism about a popular uprising

Some policymakers have suggested that military pressure might trigger internal unrest strong enough to topple the government.

US intelligence agencies remain sceptical of that outcome.

Analysts argue that while economic hardship and political repression have generated public anger inside Iran, those grievances alone may not translate into a coordinated uprising capable of dislodging the state.

The IRGC’s control over security forces and surveillance networks gives the government a strong ability to suppress protests.

War goals remain uncertain

The intelligence assessment also raises questions about the long-term objectives of the current military campaign.

Washington and Israel have struck thousands of targets across Iran, including military bases, missile facilities and parts of the nuclear program. The strikes also killed several senior Iranian leaders.

US President Donald Trump has said the conflict will continue until Iran accepts what he described as unconditional surrender.

But intelligence officials caution that weakening Iran militarily does not automatically translate into political collapse.

For now, their analysis suggests that even sustained military pressure may not produce the regime change that some advocates of the war appear to expect.