Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Getting the money back is another fight

US President Donald Trump (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

The US Supreme Court has ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs were illegal. For the roughly 300,000 businesses that paid those duties, the decision sounded like a win. In reality, it may be the start of a longer, more expensive battle over a single question: who gets the money back, and how.

Estimates in the case put the total bill at about USD 134 billion in duties collected from importers after tariffs were imposed using emergency economic powers. The Trump administration has signalled, both publicly and behind the scenes, that refunds should follow if the tariffs were struck down. But neither the ruling nor the government has laid out a clean refund mechanism that companies can rely on, CNN reported.

That silence is the story.

Why the Supreme Court didn’t answer the refund question

The justices ruled on whether Trump had the authority to impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. They did not rule on the practical steps that come next.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing in dissent, spelled out the mess that now sits on everyone’s desk: refunds of billions of dollars would strain the US Treasury, and the court offered no roadmap for returning what was collected. He warned that the process could get chaotic, a point raised during oral arguments as well.

In other words, the court slammed one door shut and left the hallway unlit.

What businesses may have to do to get paid back

Trade lawyers are already preparing clients for the next phase, which is far less dramatic than the US Supreme Court fight and far more paperwork-heavy.

The likely path runs through the Court of International Trade and potentially more litigation, case by case. Even though Customs and Border Protection keeps detailed records of tariff payments, businesses may still have to file formal claims, submit documentation, and potentially sue to preserve their right to recover funds.

That is why some companies moved early with lawsuits. They were not only trying to overturn the tariffs, but also trying to be first in line if refunds ever materialize.

How long could this take?

Trump himself suggested the refund question could take years to resolve, floating timelines of two years and even five years. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the government has enough cash to refund importers if it has to, but he also suggested the process could take around a year, assuming it happens at all.

The scale here is the complication. Past tariff refund episodes exist, but they were smaller. A 1998 Supreme Court-related refund process returned about USD 730 million and still took around two years. Multiply that by a huge factor and the timelines stretch.

Will consumers get anything back? Probably not

Even if businesses receive refunds, consumers should not expect retroactive relief.

Economists’ point is blunt: prices don’t work like a receipt reversal. Retailers are not going to send customers a check for last season’s tariff-loaded sneakers. Companies may keep the refunds, use them to rebuild margins, or reinvest elsewhere. In competitive categories, you might see pricing soften at the margins over time, but that is not the same thing as a refund landing in your account.

Bessent made that political argument explicitly, questioning whether big retailers would pass any recovered money back to shoppers. Most analysts think they won’t.

The awkward reality: “Illegal” doesn’t mean “automatically returned”

This is the gap people miss. A tariff can be ruled unlawful, and the money collected can still sit in limbo while courts and agencies argue over process, eligibility, deadlines, and documentation.

So yes, the tariffs were struck down. But the $134 billion question remains unanswered: whether Customs follows an existing playbook, invents a new one, or forces importers to fight for refunds one lawsuit at a time.

For businesses, the ruling was the easy part. Getting the money back is where the real grind starts.