Trade deal key to easing India-US tensions, Trump's Pak outreach concern for New Delhi: Michael Kugelman

File Photo - US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman has voiced optimism that a prospective trade deal between India and the United States could help ease tensions between the two countries.

“The path to any type of reset in this relationship is to have a trade deal. Even with tensions as high as they’ve been, we have continued to have trade talks in recent days, and there’s no reason to think that those talks are going to stop anytime soon,” he told ANI

According to Kugelman, the stakes go well beyond economics. “If we do get a trade deal, that would be a big confidence-building measure, would restore some trust in the relationship and it would also reduce what has really been one of the biggest tension points and that’s the very high US tariffs imposed on India,” he said.

But tariffs are only part of the friction. Kugelman pointed to Washington’s decision to sharply raise H-1B visa fees, calling it a blow to one of the most enduring bonds between the two countries. “This decision is another indication that the relationship is still in a bad state, even after we had that phone call between Trump and Modi,” he said. He warned that higher costs risk “a pretty significant blow to US-India tech relations,” since the program has long been the backbone of technology cooperation and people-to-people links.

While India and the US wrestle with trade and immigration disputes, the regional security map is also being redrawn. Kugelman highlighted Pakistan’s deepening military partnership with Saudi Arabia, calling the new defence pact “a game changer.” He argued that “the fact that Pakistan now has a formal institutionalised alliance with Saudi Arabia poses some new challenges for India,” even if Riyadh is unlikely to jeopardise its friendship with New Delhi.

That pact is only one part of a broader pattern. Kugelman said Pakistan “has been able to resurrect and fortify a lot of its alliances” by reviving ties with the US, China, Turkey and Gulf states. This, he suggested, has put additional pressure on India at a time when its own ties with Washington are fraying. “This resurgence in US-Pakistan ties has become a tension point in US-India relations, just because there are so many other bad things happening,” he observed.

He also flagged the possibility of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif travelling to Washington to meet President Trump. If that happens, Kugelman argued, “that would be the latest indication of just how far this relationship has come.”

The shifting balance has been underscored on the global stage. Kugelman described Trump’s performance at the United Nations General Assembly’s 80th session as “extremely undiplomatic seemingly rambling.” Most striking to him was that Trump “once again blaming India for sponsoring Russia’s war in Ukraine.” That remark, delivered only days after a birthday call to Prime Minister Modi, underscored Kugelman’s bottom line: “We have not yet seen a reset in the US-India relationship.”