The Bangladesh-US ‘secret’ trade deal: Why Dhaka is on edge

Bangladesh interim leader Muhammad Yunu

• Bangladesh-US trade deal to be signed before Bangladesh's national election
• Leaders criticize pact's secrecy and timing.
• Exporters worry the deal may impact Bangladesh's key garment industry

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A proposed trade agreement between Bangladesh and the United States, expected to be signed in Washington on 9 February, has stirred unease across Dhaka’s political and business circles.

The deal is being finalised under a strict non-disclosure agreement, keeping its contents confidential, and is being pushed through by an unelected interim administration just days before the 12 February national election.

Political observers say the timing, secrecy and limited mandate of the Muhammad Yunus-led caretaker government have raised questions about whose interests the pact ultimately serves and whether it could bind a future elected administration to long-term economic obligations.

Concerns are sharper because Bangladesh’s economy relies heavily on exports to the US, especially ready-made garments and textiles, sectors already facing pressure from shifting tariff policies in Washington and growing competition from India. Exporters say they remain in the dark about the agreement’s terms and how it may reshape the country’s most crucial industry.

What is the Bangladesh–US trade deal?

The reciprocal tariff agreement is scheduled to be signed in Washington on 9 February, only three days before Bangladesh heads to the polls. Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo reported that the signing ceremony is set to begin on 8 February. Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman are not expected to travel to the United States. According to the report, Uddin has already signed the document in Dhaka, after which it will be formally signed in Washington by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

A five-member Bangladeshi delegation has instead been tasked with carrying the signed copy to Washington and attending the ceremony. The team is scheduled to leave Dhaka on 6 February and return on 10 February.

What is known about the pact so far?

Very little information has been made public because the interim administration signed a confidentiality agreement with Washington in 2025. Reports indicate that the United States has sought multiple concessions from Dhaka, including reducing imports from China, increasing defence purchases from the US, granting broader access to Bangladeshi markets, accepting American standards and certifications, and allowing US vehicles and parts to enter without inspection.

Tariff changes have added urgency. The Trump administration imposed a 37 per cent tariff on Bangladeshi goods in April 2025, later lowering it to 35 per cent and then 20 per cent in August. The upcoming deal is expected to reduce the rate further to around 15 per cent.

Why secrecy is drawing criticism

Business leaders and economists say the NDA has created unusual opacity for a trade agreement of this magnitude. Prothom Alo reported that neither lawmakers nor major export associations have seen the draft terms.

Economist Anu Muhammad criticised the “non-transparent, illogical and irregular” manner in which the administration is proceeding, alleging that foreign lobbyists have been placed within advisory roles and are pushing the agreement aggressively. Business chambers have echoed these concerns, arguing that without clarity it is impossible to assess potential gains or risks.

Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Taskeen Ahmed was quoted by Prothom Alo as saying that such a far-reaching deal should have been left to an elected government, as industries remain unsure which sectors might benefit or suffer. Debapriya Bhattacharya of the Centre for Policy Dialogue similarly questioned whether the incoming government’s policy space was being restricted before it even takes office.

Impact of the India–US trade deal

Momentum behind the Bangladesh–US pact reportedly increased after US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India that brought tariffs on Indian goods down to 18 per cent. Bangladesh exports between 7 and 8.4 billion dollars’ worth of apparel and textiles to the US annually, making the American market critical to its economy.

Ready-made garments account for up to 96 per cent of Bangladesh’s exports to the United States and employ millions of workers, most of them women. A more favourable tariff regime for India could erode Bangladesh’s competitive edge, which partly explains the urgency shown by the interim administration despite industry concerns over secrecy.

Why concerns persist

No draft of the agreement has been shared with Parliament or directly affected industries, according to Prothom Alo. The pact is being concluded by a caretaker administration that lacks an electoral mandate and is meant to function only until a new government is elected. Critics argue that decisions with long-term economic implications should be made by a government chosen by voters.

The controversy is unfolding alongside political tensions, with reports of American diplomatic engagement with Islamist parties and allegations from opposition figures that the interim setup lacks transparency. Former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed, has described the upcoming election as a “sham” and accused the interim administration of aligning with foreign interests, further intensifying debate around the trade deal.