Thailand votes in a high-stakes election. Here’s what matters

The latest election was called by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who leads a conservative minority government

• Thailand holds a key election after years of political instability
• Progressive People’s Party leads polls, military-backed bloc trails
• Voters also decide on a referendum to draft a new constitution

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Thailand goes to the polls today in an election that could shape the country’s political future — though past experience shows that winning at the ballot box doesn’t always mean taking power, the New York Times reported.

This vote comes after years of instability. In the 2023 election, the reformist Move Forward Party won the most seats but was blocked from forming a government. It was later dissolved by the courts. Since then, two prime ministers have been removed, and politics has remained unsettled.

The latest election was called by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who leads a conservative minority government. He moved ahead of a possible no-confidence vote that could have brought down his administration.

Who’s competing

Polls suggest the progressive People’s Party is ahead going into Sunday’s vote. The party is led by 38-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and is the successor to Move Forward. Its campaign focuses on reform, including changes to the constitution and reducing the power of unelected institutions.

Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party represents a more traditional political bloc aligned with the military and royalist establishment. He has campaigned heavily on national security, especially after last year’s border clashes with Cambodia.

The once-dominant Shinawatra political dynasty is not in the lead this time. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is in prison, and his daughter was removed from office last year. Their party, Pheu Thai, is still competitive but not leading in most surveys.

No party is expected to win an outright majority, making coalition talks likely.

What’s different this time

One major change from 2023 is that military-appointed senators no longer have the power to vote for the prime minister. That mechanism expired in 2024. This means the 500 elected members of the House will choose the next leader.

Voters will also take part in a referendum on whether to begin drafting a new constitution. The current charter was written after a military coup in 2014 and has been criticized for giving courts and independent bodies broad authority to dissolve parties and remove elected leaders.

The issues on voters’ minds

The economy is a key concern. Growth has slowed, and Thailand is projected to expand by just 1.6 percent this year. Household debt is high, and many families are struggling with rising living costs.

Tourism, which plays a major role in the economy, has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Exports have also been hit by global trade tensions.

Security has become more prominent since last year’s border conflict with Cambodia. Anutin has promised tougher border measures, while the People’s Party has tried to reassure voters that reform does not mean weakening the military.

Why the outcome matters

Thailand has seen repeated clashes between reformist parties and entrenched institutions. Even when voters choose change, that change has often been blocked.

This election will test whether the political system allows a winning party to govern — or whether familiar tensions resurface.

For many Thais, the vote is about more than choosing a party. It’s about whether the result will be respected.