Tarique Rahman set to be Bangladesh PM: Good or bad news for Pakistan?

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairman Tarique Rahman

The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) on Friday won a decisive two-thirds majority in the general elections as the South Asian nation steps into a new era of leadership after months of turmoil following the ouster of former PM Sheikh Hasina.

Tarique Rahman, the son of late former PM Khaleda Zia, is set to become the prime minister of Bangladesh after returning from a nearly 18-year exile.

The BNP scion will take the mantle from Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, 85, who held the office as interim head after Hasina fled to India in August 2024.

The return of BNP, which last ruled the country from 2001 to 2007, signals a shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy balance, particularly in how it manages relations with India and Pakistan.

Pakistan's Bangladesh outreach

Rahman's first few days in office will be closely watched by Pakistan since it has intensified efforts to repair its strained ties with Bangladesh ever since Yunus took power. Over the last few months, Pakistan's ISI and military officials have made several high-level visits to Bangladesh amid warming ties post Hasina's ouster.

It has carefully cultivated strong security ties with Dhaka with a covert aim to target India, as per reports. According to a report by CNN-News18, Pakistan wants to use Bangladesh to infiltrate India’s eastern borders by exploiting the Rohingya refugee crisis and collaborating with radical Bangladeshi groups. Sources said that intelligence agencies have already raised an alarm about ISI’s tactics in the region.

Thus, Pakistan is expected to step up efforts to maintain a strong relationship with the new BNP government to maintain positive trajectory in bilateral ties and advance its strategic anti-India goals.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was quick to congratulate Rahman on his victory in a post on X, saying that he looks forward to "strengthen historic and brotherly multifaceted bilateral relations."

"I extend my warmest felicitations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a resounding victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh on the successful conduct of the elections. I look forward to working closely with the new Bangladesh leadership to further strengthen our historic, brotherly multifaceted bilateral relations and advance our shared goals of peace, stability, and development in South Asia and beyond,” he said.

What 'PM Rahman' means for Pakistan

For Pakistan, Rahman’s return presents a mixed opportunity. The BNP resurgence may add further momentum to warmth between Dhaka and Islamabad, given the party’s historical affinity with Pakistan and past tolerance for Jamaat-linked networks.

Moreover, with Jamaat now a key rival of BNP rather than ally, Pakistan is likely to keep courting Rahman while keeping ties with Islamist proxies as an insurance policy if BNP’s moderation hardens into a more independent line.

Abhinav Pandya, a scholar of fundamentalism and terrorism in South Asia, told Firstpost that both BNP and Jamaat have maintained close ties with Pakistan and their recent fallout could be more tactical and short term.

“While Jamaat is entirely a Pakistani proxy to spread its state-backed Islamist and jihadist agenda across South Asia, the BNP has shown some tactical pragmatism but never abandoned its Islamist roots outright. In fact, in Bangladesh, the Islamisation is such that even ‘secular’ institutions like the Awami League operate within the framework of Islamism,” he said.

However, Rahman’s “Not Dilli, not Pindi… Bangladesh first” posture and his public distancing from Islamists also signal a more nationalist and balanced foreign policy approach that may limit Pakistan's leverage.

During a rally at Dhaka, he said that Bangladesh will not align itself closely with either India or Pakistan. "Not Dilli, not Pindi (Rawalpindi), Bangladesh before everything," he said. This signals a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy ties.

During campaigning, he even lashed out at the rival Jamaat for siding with Pakistan in 1971, saying, "They are trying to cheat people with false promises."

On the other hand, India is also seeking to deepen engagement with the BNP leadership, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintaining warm communication with the new dispensation.

In a significant gesture, New Delhi sent external affairs minister S Jaishankar to attend the funeral of former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia, signalling its intent to strengthen ties.

During the visit, Jaishankar handed over a personal letter from PM Modi to Tarique Rahman, conveying condolences on behalf of the Government and people of India.