Putin isn’t winning. Europe shouldn’t talk as if he is

Russian President Vladimir Putin

• Russia's advances in Ukraine are slow and costly, not decisive victories
• Europe's main issue is hesitation, not weakness, in supporting Ukraine
• Consistent actions, not rhetoric, are key to countering Russia's narrative

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Listen to Russian officials and the message is simple: the war is moving in their direction. They say their army has the initiative. They say the west is divided. They suggest Ukraine will eventually have to give up territory.

That version of events has begun to seep into political debates outside Russia too, the Financial Times reported. When the idea of “inevitable Russian victory” starts circulating, it shapes expectations. And expectations shape negotiations.

But inevitability is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Grinding forward is not the same as winning

Russia has taken ground in eastern Ukraine. That much is true. But it has been slow, costly and incremental. Gains have come village by village, not in sweeping offensives.

Ukraine has not collapsed. Even after sustained attacks on energy infrastructure, there are no signs of mass unrest or surrender fatigue.

This is a war of endurance. That cuts both ways.

The pressure inside Russia

Russia’s leadership projects control, but it is managing strain.

Recruitment is getting harder. Reports suggest courts are offering prisoners the chance to fight in exchange for reduced sentences. Reserve call-ups and expanded conscription are causing unease among families who had hoped the war would remain distant.

The economy is also under pressure. Defence spending is high. The budget deficit has widened. Inflation remains a concern. Oil exports continue to fund the system, but they are the backbone of a war effort that must be constantly financed.

None of this means collapse is around the corner. It does mean the system is working hard to hold together.

Europe’s problem isn’t weakness. It’s hesitation.

Europe often describes itself in defensive terms — divided, slow, reactive. That language becomes part of the problem.

The European Union has economic weight. NATO still anchors collective security. Ukraine has battlefield experience and rapid innovation in defence technology. Countries such as Britain, Canada and Japan share a clear interest in preventing borders from being redrawn by force.

Those are not trivial assets.

What undermines them is mixed messaging — sounding unsure about long-term support, debating fundamentals in public, or speaking as though Russia’s trajectory cannot be altered.

Consistency beats rhetoric

Europe does not need dramatic speeches. It needs follow-through.

That means enforcing sanctions properly. Disrupting the networks that move Russian oil. Responding clearly to sabotage and cyber operations. Scaling up defence production instead of announcing plans for it.

Small, steady actions build credibility. They also chip away at the idea that Moscow can simply wait everyone out.

The future isn’t settled

Russia’s leadership wants the war to look pre-decided. If that perception takes hold, it becomes easier to pressure Ukraine into concessions and to paint Europe as irrelevant.

But the situation is not settled. Russia is advancing, yes — but at cost. Ukraine is holding. Europe has resources it has yet to fully mobilise.

Wars are not only about territory. They are about endurance and confidence.

Europe does not have to pretend things are going well. It has to stop talking as if they are already lost.