‘Pakistan will likely strike again’: ICG warns of Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation in 2026

ICG warns of Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation

The growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan rank among the 10 conflicts most likely to escalate in 2026, according to a flagship report released recently by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The report warns that Pakistan is likely to strike Afghanistan again if it traces another militant attack to Afghan territory. While the Taliban government remains militarily weaker than Islamabad, the ICG cautions that any retaliation could still prove deadly.

According to the report, Kabul claims to possess missiles capable of reaching Pakistani cities, a move that would almost certainly trigger a far stronger response from Pakistan.

ICG analysts and experts said that “talks between Afghan and Pakistani defence ministers in Doha, Qatar, in October yielded a ceasefire. But subsequent rounds in Istanbul have not eased bilateral tensions. Diplomatic ties are suspended. Trade has ceased. Islamabad’s actions against Afghan nationals on its territory, including mass deportations, have further angered Kabul. The Taliban, meanwhile, are fuelling Pakistan’s suspicion by forging closer ties with India.”

The report further notes that broader regional dynamics have heightened Islamabad’s vulnerability. “In South Asia, though, Islamabad’s foreign relations are far more fraught. After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours,” the ICG said.

Ten conflicts at risk of escalation

The ICG report identifies 10 global flashpoints that could worsen in 2026: Venezuela; Sudan; Ethiopia-Eritrea; Mali and Burkina Faso; Ukraine and Syria; Israel-Palestine; Israel and the United States versus Iran; US-Israel versus the Houthis; Myanmar; and Afghanistan-Pakistan.

TTP and Taliban ties

The report also highlights concerns over the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), noting that the Afghan Taliban has publicly denied the presence of Pakistani militants on Afghan soil and accused Islamabad of provoking what it describes as homegrown violence.

However, the ICG said that for Kabul, the TTP has grown too powerful and its links to the Taliban are too deep to ignore. Analysts warned that “while a ceasefire holds for now, points out the ICG, but if militant violence persists, Pakistan will likely strike again”.

Strained bilateral relations

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have sharply deteriorated following clashes triggered by Pakistan’s reported cross-border airstrikes on October 9, 2025, targeting alleged TTP camps in Afghanistan.

Islamabad has accused the Afghan Taliban of sheltering TTP militants responsible for killing hundreds of Pakistani soldiers since 2021. In response, the Taliban launched a major counteroffensive across the border, killing 58 Pakistani soldiers and destroying 20 security outposts, according to the report.

(With agency inputs)