Pakistan ramps up Chinese arms imports as India pushes Atmanirbhar Bharat: What SIPRI data reveals | Explained

A motorcyclist rides past a Pakistani JF-17 fighter jet model displayed along a road in Karachi on August 13, 2025, on the eve of the country's independence day celebrations. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP)

SIPRI data shows Pakistan’s arms imports surged, with 80% from China, deepening reliance. India remains a major importer but is reducing dependence by boosting domestic production under Atmanirbhar Bharat, diversifying suppliers, and increasing defence exports.

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The latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) paints a revealing picture of the changing military balance in South Asia. While Pakistan has dramatically increased its arms imports and become heavily dependent on Chinese weaponry, India is gradually reducing its reliance on foreign arms by strengthening domestic production under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative.

Between 2021 and 2025, global arms transfers rose significantly amid rising geopolitical tensions, with the overall volume of major arms transfers increasing by 9.2 percent compared with the previous five-year period.

Within this global trend, Pakistan has emerged as one of the fastest growing arms importers, while India remains one of the largest buyers but is steadily reshaping its defence procurement strategy. The contrast between the two neighbours is striking. Pakistan’s military modernisation appears increasingly dependent on China, whereas India is diversifying suppliers and simultaneously investing in indigenous defence production.

This shift reflects two very different defence trajectories. Pakistan continues to rely heavily on external suppliers, particularly Beijing, to sustain its military capabilities. India, in contrast, is trying to reduce import dependence through domestic manufacturing while modernising its armed forces.

Pakistan’s growing arms imports

According to the SIPRI report, Pakistan ranked as the fifth largest importer of major arms globally between 2021 and 2025, moving up from the tenth position in the previous five-year period.

Pakistan’s arms imports rose by 66 percent between 2016–20 and 2021–25, indicating a rapid expansion in its military procurement.

During this period, Pakistan accounted for 4.2 percent of total global arms imports, placing it among the world’s top buyers of military equipment.

However, what stands out even more than the growth in imports is the source of these weapons.

China’s overwhelming dominance in Pakistan’s arsenal

The SIPRI data highlights an extraordinary level of dependence on Beijing.

About 80 percent of Pakistan’s arms imports between 2021 and 2025 came from China, compared with 73 percent in the previous period.

Other suppliers play only a minor role. Türkiye accounted for roughly 7 percent of Pakistan’s imports, while the Netherlands supplied about 4.6 percent.

This means Pakistan’s military procurement is overwhelmingly tied to a single country. Analysts say this dependence reflects both Islamabad’s financial constraints and the deepening strategic alignment between China and Pakistan.

The relationship has evolved over decades, with Beijing supplying fighter jets, naval platforms, air defence systems and missiles to Pakistan. Recent deals have also included advanced aircraft and naval systems.

But this reliance also exposes Pakistan’s defence ecosystem to long-term strategic risks. Dependence on a single supplier limits flexibility, reduces bargaining power and potentially locks the country into a specific technological ecosystem dominated by Chinese platforms.

More importantly, it reinforces Pakistan’s role as a key military partner in China’s regional strategy.

Pakistan’s arms build-up driven by regional tensions

The surge in Pakistani arms purchases is also linked to ongoing regional tensions with India and broader geopolitical competition in South Asia.

Military analysts note that Pakistan has increasingly relied on imported weapons to offset India’s larger defence budget and expanding capabilities.

However, Pakistan’s economic challenges raise questions about the sustainability of such a strategy. With limited fiscal space and heavy external debt, sustaining large-scale arms purchases could place additional pressure on the country’s already fragile economy.

At the same time, Pakistan’s growing dependence on Chinese weapon systems further deepens Beijing’s influence over Islamabad’s military structure and strategic decision making.

India remains a major importer but the trend is changing

While Pakistan’s arms imports are rising rapidly, India’s trajectory tells a different story.

India was the second largest importer of major arms in the world between 2021 and 2025, accounting for 8.2 percent of global arms imports.

India’s defence imports are driven largely by security concerns related to China and Pakistan, which have periodically resulted in military tensions and brief conflicts in the region.

However, despite remaining a major buyer, India’s arms imports fell by 4 percent between 2016–20 and 2021–25, reflecting gradual progress in domestic defence production.

India’s procurement strategy is also evolving. Over the past decade, New Delhi has steadily reduced its reliance on Russia while expanding defence partnerships with Western countries such as France, Israel and the United States.

Russia’s share of India’s arms imports has dropped significantly, from 70 percent in 2011–15 to 51 percent in 2016–20 and further to 48 percent in 2021–25.

This diversification reflects India’s effort to access advanced technologies while avoiding overdependence on any single supplier.

Atmanirbhar Bharat and India’s defence transformation

A key factor behind the decline in India’s arms imports is the push for defence self-reliance under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative.

The programme aims to expand domestic defence manufacturing, encourage indigenous research and development, and reduce reliance on imported military equipment.

India has already made notable progress in this direction. Indigenous systems such as the Akash air defence system, BrahMos missile and various drone and surveillance technologies are increasingly being deployed by the armed forces.

At the same time, India is developing its own fighter aircraft, warships and missile systems while encouraging foreign defence companies to manufacture equipment within the country through joint ventures.

The result is a gradual shift from being purely an arms importer to becoming a significant defence manufacturer and exporter.

India’s defence exports have also grown rapidly in recent years, reaching record levels as domestic firms expand production and enter global markets.

A widening strategic contrast in South Asia

The SIPRI report ultimately highlights a widening contrast between India and Pakistan in terms of defence strategy.

Pakistan’s military expansion is increasingly dependent on Chinese arms imports, reflecting a deepening strategic partnership but also exposing Islamabad to long-term reliance on a single supplier.

India, on the other hand, is pursuing a more diversified and forward-looking approach. While it still imports advanced military platforms to modernise its forces, it is simultaneously investing heavily in domestic defence manufacturing.

This dual strategy allows India to strengthen its military capabilities while building long-term technological and industrial capacity.

As geopolitical competition intensifies in Asia, the difference between these two approaches may play a decisive role in shaping the region’s future military balance.