Pakistan cries foul over Jhelum, Neelum water flow from India: What Islamabad claims and what facts suggest

The Neelum River and settlements along the Line of Control (LoC) between India (L) and Pakistan are pictured on May 3, 2025, from the Neelum Valley, a district in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. (Photo by Farooq NAEEM / AFP)

Pakistan has opened yet another front of alarm over water flows from India, this time alleging sharp declines in the Jhelum and Neelum rivers, days after making similar claims about the Chenab. The complaints come as Islamabad struggles to cope with the consequences of India’s suspension of the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people.

According to a report in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper, Islamabad has accused India of abruptly holding and releasing water from the Jhelum, calling it a “serious and alarming” development. Pakistani media claimed that flows in the Jhelum and Neelum dropped to around 3,000 cusecs from over 5,000 cusecs, hitting Pakistan during the crucial Rabi sowing season. Officials have warned that this threatens the food security and livelihoods of Pakistan’s 240 million population.

Jhelum is a vital artery for Pakistan’s agriculture, feeding the Mangla dam in Mirpur and irrigating large swathes of Punjab, including the Chaj Doab region. A Pakistani irrigation department official told Dawn, “It is really serious and alarming because around 15 million of the total 25 million acres of agricultural land, which is irrigated through various canals, is receiving either less water or no water these days.”

Despite the alarmist rhetoric, Pakistan has not formally taken up the Jhelum issue with India. Its commissioner for Indus waters, Syed Mehr Ali Shah, said monitoring was ongoing. “For now, we have written a letter to India about the Chenab River. We will look into the issue further upon receipt of a reply,” Shah said.

India has so far not responded to Pakistan’s claims on either the Chenab or the Jhelum. Experts have repeatedly pointed out that river flows routinely fluctuate due to seasonal variations, snowfall melt and rainfall patterns, factors Pakistan often ignores while rushing to escalate the issue politically.

Last week, Islamabad sent what local media described as a desperate letter to New Delhi over alleged sudden variations in the Chenab’s flow. Geo News claimed India released 58,000 cusecs between December 7 and 8 before sharply reducing it. Days later, Pakistan itself admitted that Chenab levels had stabilised, undercutting its own narrative of an unfolding water crisis.

Pakistan’s loud accusations also sit uneasily alongside a growing crisis on its western flank. As highlighted in recent reports, dams being built by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan on the Kunar River threaten to significantly reduce downstream flows into Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Unlike with India, Islamabad has been unable to extract assurances or enforcement mechanisms from Kabul, exposing how vulnerable Pakistan’s water security really is.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocated the western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan, while India retained control over Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The agreement survived wars and decades of hostility until April 2025, when India suspended it after the Pahalgam terror attack and a sharp collapse in bilateral ties.

Even so, Pakistan has continued to issue hyperbolic warnings, declaring that any attempt to stop water flows would be treated as an “Act of War”. With no evidence of deliberate Indian violations and mounting threats from Afghanistan’s upstream projects, Islamabad’s latest outcry appears less about facts and more about deflecting blame for its own strategic and diplomatic failures.