Is China really a threat in Greenland? How Trump's claims miss the reality | Explained

Apartment buildings and houses are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 24, 2025. Greenland's Prime Minister Mute Egede accused Washington of interfering in its political affairs with the visit of an American delegation to the Danish territory coveted by US President Donald Trump. The White House announced on March 23, 2025 that Usha Vance, the wife of US Vice President JD Vance, will visit Greenland with her son and a US delegation, which Egede said would include National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. (Photo by Juliette PAVY / AFP)

Despite US President Trump's warnings about Chinese military threats in Greenland, experts say China's Arctic presence is limited, with no evidence of warships near Greenland. China's influence is growing slowly, mainly through research, energy, and shipping projects.

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US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that Greenland could fall into China’s hands, even suggesting that the United States may need to take the Arctic island by force from Nato ally Denmark to prevent Beijing from gaining a foothold.

Trump has claimed that without US action, Greenland would see “Chinese destroyers and submarines all over the place”. However, analysts say China’s actual presence in the Arctic is limited and far from the threat described by the US president.

Here is what is known about China’s role in the Arctic and around Greenland.

No swarm of Chinese warships

Despite Trump’s claims, experts say there is no sign of a heavy Chinese military presence near Greenland.

“Greenland is not swarming with Chinese and Russian vessels. This is nonsense,” said Paal Sigurd Hilde of the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.

China’s military activity in the Arctic remains modest and is largely tied to cooperation with Russia, especially after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“China’s only pathway to gaining significant influence in the Arctic goes through Russia,” Hilde said.

China and Russia have stepped up joint Arctic patrols and coast guard exercises, including a bomber patrol near Alaska in 2024. China also operates a small number of icebreakers equipped with deep sea mini submarines that can map the seabed, as well as satellites used for Arctic observation. Beijing maintains these assets are meant for scientific research.

Influence is growing, but slowly

Some analysts caution that even limited activity deserves attention.

“These activities are potential security concerns if China’s military or military linked assets establish a regular presence in the region,” said Helena Legarda at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.

“China has clear ambitions to expand its footprint and influence in the region, which it considers an emerging arena for geopolitical competition,” she said.

China launched its Polar Silk Road initiative in 2018 as part of the Belt and Road framework, aiming to position itself as a “polar great power” by 2030. Since then, it has opened research stations in Iceland and Norway and invested in Russian liquefied natural gas projects and a railway line in Sweden.

However, China has also faced resistance. Attempts to buy an abandoned naval base in Greenland and an airport in Finland failed. In 2019, Greenland rejected China’s Huawei for its 5G network after pressure from the United States.

Russia remains the main exception, with China investing heavily in energy and port infrastructure along Russia’s northern coastline.

Why Greenland matters

Greenland holds the world’s eighth largest reserves of rare earth elements, according to the US Geological Survey. These materials are essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and advanced military technology.

Although China dominates global rare earth production, its efforts to access Greenland’s reserves have had limited success. A Chinese linked mining project at the Kvanefjeld deposit was halted in 2021 over environmental concerns. Another deposit in southern Greenland was sold to a New York based firm in 2024 following US lobbying.

“There was a fear in Denmark and the US that mining investments several times the GDP of Greenland could have led to Chinese influence a decade ago, but the investments never materialised,” said Jesper Willaing Zeuthen, an associate professor at Aalborg University.

More recently, Zeuthen said, “Beijing discourages engagement, because the diplomatic costs have been too high”.

Arctic shipping routes and China’s interest

Another key driver of China’s Arctic interest is shipping. As climate change melts Arctic sea ice, new sea routes are opening that could dramatically shorten travel times between Asia and Europe.

China and Russia agreed in October to jointly develop the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast. Last year, a Chinese vessel reached Britain in just 20 days using the Arctic route, roughly half the time required via the Suez Canal.

The route could reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Malacca, a major strategic chokepoint. However, Arctic shipping remains difficult. Ships require special modifications, navigation is challenging due to ice and fog, and weather conditions are extreme.

Chinese vessels made only 14 voyages along the Northern Sea Route last year, mostly transporting Russian gas. Another potential route, the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago, could limit dependence on Russia.

Importantly, the Northern Sea Route does not pass by Greenland, undermining Trump’s claim that Chinese ships are operating along the island’s coast.

Zeuthen said there is still no evidence of Chinese military activity near Greenland’s Arctic waters.

“Actual security issues are very hard to identify,” he said.

For now, analysts agree that China is watching the Arctic closely, but its presence remains far more limited than US rhetoric suggests.