Iran war and Ukraine: How conflict is affecting peace talks, oil prices and weapons supplies

Iran war reshapes Ukraine conflict dynamics

The US–Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has escalated into a broader war in West Asia, triggering shockwaves that extend far beyond the region. What began as a regional military confrontation has already rattled energy markets, provoked retaliatory attacks across the Gulf and drawn Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters deeper into the conflict in Lebanon.

But the ripple effects are not confined to the Middle East. Thousands of kilometres away, Ukraine — now in the fourth year of Russia’s invasion — is beginning to feel the strategic and economic consequences of the widening war.

Here is how the widening Iran war is starting to influence the Ukraine conflict.

Impact on diplomatic efforts in Ukraine

The latest diplomatic push to end the war in Ukraine appears to have been unsettled by escalating tensions in West Asia.

US President Donald Trump has been urging Russia and Ukraine to negotiate a settlement, positioning himself as a potential mediator in Europe’s deadliest war since World War II.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that a third round of talks involving Ukrainian, US and Russian officials had been tentatively scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Abu Dhabi.

However, the discussions now appear uncertain after Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, with the United Arab Emirates among the countries targeted.

The Ukrainian negotiating team told AFP there is currently no concrete date for the next round of talks.

Zelenskyy has said Ukraine would be open to holding negotiations in alternative venues such as Turkey or Switzerland, both of which have previously hosted peace-related meetings.

Could higher oil prices strengthen Russia?

Energy markets represent another channel through which the Iran conflict could indirectly affect the war in Ukraine.

Kyiv has repeatedly targeted Russian oil and gas infrastructure with long-range strikes in an effort to reduce Moscow’s revenue base. Western sanctions have also sought to restrict Russia’s energy exports.

However, instability in West Asia — including attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf — has pushed global oil prices higher.

Rising prices could benefit Moscow by boosting its oil earnings and reinforcing the financial resources available for its military campaign, even as sanctions and declining energy revenues continue to pressure its economy.

The Druzhba pipeline dispute with the EU

The broader regional war has also complicated tensions between Ukraine and the European Union over the Druzhba pipeline, one of the world’s longest oil transport routes.

The pipeline carries Russian crude to European countries including Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Constructed during the Soviet era, its name translates to “friendship” in Russian.

According to a Financial Times report, the European Commission and several pro-Ukraine governments have asked Kyiv to allow inspectors to examine a damaged section of the pipeline to determine whether Ukraine is attempting to restore oil flows.

Hungary and Slovakia have accused Ukraine of exaggerating the damage and intentionally blocking the pipeline, while Ukrainian officials argue that the infrastructure suffered serious destruction and requires time to repair.

The dispute has already influenced European politics. Hungary’s government under Viktor Orban has delayed support for an EU loan package for Ukraine until pipeline operations resume.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have reportedly urged Kyiv to permit an independent inspection mission. Ukraine has so far rejected the request.

Zelenskyy’s proposal for an air defence exchange

The war in West Asia could also affect Ukraine’s military supply chain, particularly air defence systems provided by Western allies.

Zelenskyy has acknowledged that a prolonged conflict in the region may impact the availability of US-supplied air defence missiles used to protect critical infrastructure.

Russia has relied heavily on Iranian-designed Shahed drones during its invasion — the same type of drones that Tehran has deployed in attacks across the Gulf.

Ukraine says it has developed relatively low-cost interceptor drones capable of destroying incoming attack drones mid-air.

This week, Zelenskyy proposed a possible weapons exchange with partners in West Asia.

“Let’s speak about weapons that we’re short of: PAC-3 missiles — if they give them to us, we will give them interceptors,” he said.

Under the proposal, West Asian countries facing Iranian drone threats could receive Ukrainian interception technology, while Ukraine would obtain additional air defence missiles to strengthen its defences.