Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei breaks 37-year rule: What Trump’s attack threat has to do with it?

Khamenei breaks 37‑year ritual amid Trump’s threat and US‑Iran tensions

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has, for the first time since 1989, missed the annual February 8 meeting with air force commanders, a ritual he has observed for 37 years. The decision comes amid rising tensions with the United States and speculation over Tehran’s next strategic moves.

Deputy steps in for symbolic event

Instead of Khamenei, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi met senior air force officers on Sunday. The annual gathering, which marks the Air Force Day celebrations and commemorates the 1979 pledge of allegiance to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini by air force officers, has long been a symbolic display of loyalty to the Islamic Republic.

Strategic caution amid US pressure

Analysts say Khamenei’s absence may signal a shift towards strategic restraint, prioritising caution over ceremonial displays. The move comes as Iran and the US remain at odds over nuclear negotiations, with Iranian officials calling recent talks in Oman a “good start” despite deep differences over Tehran’s missile programme and regional policies.

Military buildup and security concerns

The absence of Khamenei coincides with a significant US military buildup in the Gulf. Satellite imagery has shown the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, alongside F-15 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, A-10C Thunderbolts, and other reconnaissance aircraft in the region. Reports also suggest that Khamenei may have relocated to a fortified underground facility in Tehran amid concerns over a potential US strike.

Domestic and regional implications

Iran’s leader has repeatedly warned that any US attack would spark a broader regional conflict, saying, “If the US initiates a war this time, it would spill over across the entire region.” The meeting was attended by senior commanders from the Air Force and Air Defense Directorate, as well as other top military officials. Massoud Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s third son, is reportedly managing day-to-day operations of the Leader’s Office and communicating with government bodies in his father’s stead.

A break from tradition

For decades, Khamenei has personally overseen this meeting, cementing his authority in times of regional confrontations and proxy wars. His absence has fueled debate among observers, with some seeing it as a move to prioritize diplomacy and military deterrence while avoiding unnecessary risks.