Inside Trump’s Ukraine peace plan and why Kyiv is pushing back

Inside Trump’s Ukraine peace plan and why Kyiv is pushing back

US President Donald Trump’s 28-point peace plan for Ukraine aims to end the war quickly, with Kyiv asked to sign on by Thanksgiving. On paper, it offers security guarantees, reconstruction money and a path to reintegrate Russia into the global economy. In practice, many of its core points mirror long-standing Russian demands and cut across Ukraine’s red lines. That is why Kyiv and several European capitals are deeply wary of the terms and the risks hidden in the details, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Capping Ukraine’s army and closing the NATO door

One of the plan’s most sensitive demands is a cap on Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000 personnel, far below current levels. Ukraine and its European partners see a strong army as the main protection against future Russian attacks, after years spent building up its military with Western help. Limiting troop numbers, they argue, would leave the country exposed just as it has become a frontline state against Russian aggression.

The plan also requires Ukraine to write into its constitution that it will never join NATO, while NATO would formally rule out membership for Ukraine in the future. Kyiv knows NATO entry is distant, but treats the aspiration as a long-term security anchor and a symbol that it belongs to the West. Reversing that goal would be politically explosive at home and would cement Russia’s veto over Ukraine’s security choices.

A conditional US security guarantee

Another major element is a US security guarantee that would trigger a “decisive coordinated military response” if Russia invades again. But the plan leaves vague what that response would actually involve, and many European officials doubt Western countries would risk a direct war with Russia by sending their own troops. The guarantee also comes with conditions: if Ukraine were to invade Russia or launch an unprovoked missile strike on Moscow or St. Petersburg, the pledge would be withdrawn.

For Kyiv, which has long asked for firm and detailed security guarantees, the combination of ambiguity and conditions raises concerns. Ukrainian and European leaders insist that any promises from Moscow must be backed by credible Western enforcement, not just statements on paper.

Bringing Russia back into the global economy

The plan envisages Russia’s gradual return to economic normality: sanctions would be lifted in stages, Moscow would sign a long-term economic cooperation agreement with Washington, and Russia would be invited back into what used to be the G8. The two sides would cooperate on energy, infrastructure, artificial intelligence and Arctic resource projects.

European governments, however, have repeatedly said there can be no simple “business as usual” after the invasion. They want accountability for Russian leaders and are already working to cut dependence on Russian oil and gas. Allowing Russia back into elite clubs and deep economic partnerships so soon after the war would be politically difficult and could be seen as rewarding aggression.

Frozen Russian assets and who controls Ukraine’s reconstruction

A particularly contentious part of the plan concerns roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets, most of them held in Europe. Trump’s proposal would direct $100 billion of those funds into US-led rebuilding and investment in Ukraine, with the United States taking half the profits. Europe would add its own money and unfreeze the remaining Russian funds for a separate US-Russia investment vehicle.

That clashes with existing European ideas, which focus on using the frozen assets to generate loans for Ukraine on terms set by Kyiv and its allies. Handing a large chunk of the funds into joint US-Russian projects would tie Ukraine’s reconstruction to Moscow’s economic interests and reduce European control over how that money is used.

Territory, the nuclear plant and lines on the map

On territory, the plan asks Ukraine to accept that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are de facto part of Russia, with US recognition. Front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would be frozen, effectively turning current battle lines into political borders. Ukraine would also withdraw from positions it still holds in Donetsk, creating a demilitarized buffer zone recognised as Russian territory, even if Russian forces are meant to stay out of it.

Kyiv has repeatedly said it will not trade land for peace, arguing that any concession would let Russia regroup and attack again from a stronger position. It has built major defensive networks in the east at huge cost in lives and resources. Giving up those positions voluntarily, Ukrainian officials fear, would hand Moscow a future military advantage rather than secure a lasting peace.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, now under Russian control near the front line, would be restarted under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with electricity split evenly between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has long demanded full control of the plant, which once supplied a large share of its power. The IAEA has warned that operating the facility in wartime is unsafe, and any joint arrangement would depend on trust that neither side believes exists.

Humanitarian steps and elections under pressure

One of the few parts of the plan likely to gain broad support is the creation of a humanitarian committee. It would arrange “all for all” exchanges of prisoners and bodies, return civilian detainees and hostages, and address the fate of children taken to Russia. Even here, there are major disagreements over numbers, legal status and who qualifies for return.

The proposal also calls for Ukraine to hold elections within 100 days. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s mandate has been extended under martial law, and he has said elections are possible only if they can be free, fair and nationwide. Kyiv argues that voting on a rushed schedule, with parts of the country occupied and Russian disinformation campaigns active, would risk turning the ballot into another tool of pressure.

What the plan reveals

Taken together, Trump’s plan lays out a swift path to ending open fighting, but on terms that require Ukraine to accept territorial losses, a capped army, a closed NATO door and broad economic reintegration for Russia. Kyiv and its European allies see those conditions as locking in many of Moscow’s gains in exchange for promises they doubt Russia will keep.

For now, the plan underscores a central tension of the war: the desire for a rapid cease-fire versus the fear that a badly structured peace could simply pause the conflict and make the next round even more dangerous.