India weighs evacuation of nationals amid escalating Iran protests: Sources

India watches Iran unrest closely

Amid ongoing protests in Iran, New Delhi is closely monitoring the situation and evaluating the risk to Indian nationals.

“New Delhi is already working out viability of evacuation amid blackouts and flight suspensions. Demonstrations have spread to 180 cities across all 31 provinces, with participation estimates peaking between 1.5 and 1.8 million people nationwide,” said top intelligence sources.

The nationwide protests challenging Iran’s theocracy have entered their third week, with demonstrators flooding the streets of Tehran and Mashhad, the country’s capital and second-largest city. Violence surrounding the demonstrations has killed at least 116 people, according to activists.

With internet and phone lines cut across Iran, assessing the scale of protests from abroad has become increasingly difficult. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that, in addition to the fatalities, around 2,600 people have been detained.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that the US military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America launched an attack on the Islamic Republic, as threatened by President Donald Trump.

Protests remain active but fragmented, with smaller demonstrations continuing across multiple cities. Participation has declined under arrests, curfews, and communication blackouts, yet anti-regime sentiment remains widespread.

“The regime change in Iran seems unlikely right now. The real authority resides with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the coercive action done by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran is designed in such a way that the regime will survive even if the government collapses,” sources said.

“Because IRGC is involved in all major businesses, defection is unlikely. Officers are not just soldiers but they are stakeholders in the system’s survival,” they added.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains strong with an estimated 125,000–150,000 personnel. They also control Basij militia, which is up to 1 million. The command is firmly held by Hossein Salami, with expeditionary operations under Esmail Qaani. Both, considered hardliners, are loyal directly to the Supreme Leader,” the sources explained.

The IRGC is reported to control 30–40% of Iran’s economy through sectors including construction, energy, ports, telecom, and sanctions-bypass networks.

(With PTI inputs)