MC EXCLUSIVE ‘Ideologically hostile’: How BNP victory limits Jamaat’s threat, offers India strategic relief | Bangladesh polls

BNP majority reduces Jamaat’s ideological influence

The swearing-in of Tarique Rahman as Bangladesh’s prime minister, following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s decisive two-thirds majority in the country’s 13th parliamentary elections, has provided a measure of strategic relief for India, according to former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.

While the party’s ideology has historically posed challenges for New Delhi, Sibal said the scale of the BNP’s victory — which limits the political influence of Jamaat-e-Islami — matters more than its ideological orientation.

“In the past, BNP has had coalition governments with Jamaat. And the Jamaat therefore was able to exercise very negative influence within that coalition against Indian interests. And I was privy to that myself, when I was foreign secretary and the BNP was in power,” Sibal told Moneycontrol, highlighting the challenges India faced when Jamaat wielded disproportionate influence.

The 2026 election results, however, have produced a very different parliamentary landscape. BNP secured a clear two-thirds majority in the 300-seat Jatiya Sangsad, while Jamaat and its allies won only around 70 seats. Sibal explained that this effectively removes Jamaat’s ability to shape policy from within the government, as it could in previous coalition arrangements.

“That means it will not be a coalition government,” he said, underlining the structural significance of the result. “Therefore, even though BNP is not a party that naturally embraces India, the fact that Jamaat cannot exercise leverage is strategically important.”

Sibal also highlighted the ideological concern with Jamaat, describing it as a hardline Islamist party whose influence in past BNP-led coalitions often steered policies against India’s interests. “Jamaat was able to push an agenda that was not only politically obstructive but ideologically hostile to India,” he said, underlining why its reduced role is significant. With BNP now holding a clear majority, Sibal noted, “The government is less likely to be swayed by hardline positions, making India’s strategic environment more predictable.”

From New Delhi’s perspective, the absence of Jamaat from the centre of power significantly lowers the strategic risk. While acknowledging that the BNP has “a history of being difficult with India”, Sibal stressed that the party is fundamentally business-oriented and less ideological than Jamaat or student-led factions that had risen to prominence during the 2024 uprising.

“Now that they are in power, they, I think, will reverse some of the trends that we have seen — namely, the great bonhomie with Pakistan, which some in the interim period were encouraging,” Sibal said.

He was also candid about the election’s imperfections. The Awami League, which commands significant electoral support, was barred from contesting. “After all, they have 30% of the vote, and they were not allowed to participate. So, to that extent, it is not a fair and inclusive election,” Sibal noted. Nevertheless, he insisted that these shortcomings should not influence India’s engagement with the new government.

“That would hardly be any reason for us to say that we don’t recognise the results of the election or be lukewarm about it. Now, we have to deal with the BNP,” he said.

Sibal also addressed potential flashpoints, including the question of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition. He said while it could produce occasional political “noise,” it is unlikely to derail bilateral relations. “My own feeling is that we will go ahead and see where we can have positive interaction and remove some of the wrinkles and misunderstandings that have occurred,” he said, adding that discussions on sensitive issues such as minority protection will continue alongside broader diplomatic engagement.

Ultimately, Sibal framed the BNP’s majority not as a triumph of ideological alignment with India but as a structurally stabilising factor. “Even though BNP has had difficult ties with India historically, the fact that Jamaat cannot exercise undue influence is strategically significant,” he said. For New Delhi, the clear takeaway is that a strong, single-party BNP government provides a more predictable and manageable partner in Dhaka — a welcome contrast to previous coalition governments and a safeguard against unpredictable political dynamics in Bangladesh.