How Brazil resisted US pressure and sentenced Bolsonaro

How Brazil resisted US pressure and sentenced Bolsonaro

Brazil’s Supreme Court handed Jair Bolsonaro a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after the 2022 elections, rejecting direct demands from President Trump to drop the charges. Trump had tried to exert pressure by imposing 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian exports, sanctioning Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and launching a trade probe. Brazil’s defiance underscored its determination to shield domestic institutions from foreign interference, even at the cost of worsening relations with Washington.

Lula gains politically from confrontation

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has seen his popularity rise as he pushed back against Trump’s attempts to shield Bolsonaro. By framing US actions as attacks on Brazil’s sovereignty, Lula strengthened his standing at home while rallying public support for the courts. Justice Moraes, long a polarizing figure, also gained institutional backing as he moved ahead with the conviction despite sanctions and open threats from US officials.

Economic retaliation and China’s opening

Trump’s tariffs were designed to punish Brazil’s economy, hitting sectors like beef, coffee, and sugar. Yet the impact was blunted as China quickly expanded purchases, boosting Brazil’s exports by 4 percent in August. Trade data showed sales to China rising 31 percent compared with a year earlier, while exports to the United States fell 18.5 percent. As a result, Beijing’s role in Brazil’s economy deepened, while US leverage weakened.

Washington escalates rhetoric

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau denounced the trial as a “witch hunt,” warning relations were at their lowest point in two centuries. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt added fuel by saying Trump would use America’s economic and military power to “protect free speech worldwide,” a reference to Moraes’s orders for social platforms to suspend accounts. Brazil’s government condemned the remarks, insisting it would not be treated like a “banana republic.”

Public opinion shifts

Surveys suggest American pressure is backfiring. Favourable views of the United States among Brazilians fell from 58 percent in early 2024 to 44 percent in August 2025. In contrast, China’s image improved from 38 percent to 49 percent during the same period. While Bolsonaro supporters rallied with American flags in gratitude to Trump, the broader population viewed Washington’s intervention as an echo of Cold War meddling.

A crisis with historical resonance

For many Brazilians, the standoff recalls darker moments in US–Brazil relations, particularly Washington’s support for the 1964 military coup. Today, critics argue Trump’s push to defend Bolsonaro mirrors that interventionist legacy. US officials counter that they are standing up for democracy by resisting judicial overreach in Brazil. But with Bolsonaro now convicted, the gap between these competing narratives remains wide, leaving relations deeply strained.

Outlook for US–Brazil ties

Trump’s reluctance to outline new sanctions after the conviction suggested Washington may be running out of leverage. Yet the damage is evident: Brazil has moved closer to China, its largest trading partner, while America’s standing in Latin America’s biggest democracy has slipped. Whether the US will escalate further or accept the outcome remains uncertain, but the episode highlights how Brazil is emerging as a test case for countries willing to resist Trump’s pressure on the global stage.