Friends, not fighters: Will China and Russia really back Iran if the US Strikes?

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping walk at Zhongnanhai leadership compound in Beijing on September 2, 2025. (Photo by Alexander KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP)

Russia and China support Iran politically and economically but are unlikely to offer military backing if the US strikes. Analysts say both powers prioritize their own interests and relations with Washington over direct involvement in an Iran-US conflict.

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Even as Russia and China signal political support for Iran amid mass protests and sharp warnings from US President Donald Trump, that backing is expected to stop short of direct military involvement if the United States launches strikes, analysts have told AFP.

Iran is a key partner for both Moscow and Beijing. Tehran supplies drones to Russia for its war effort and remains an important oil supplier to China. Yet experts say these ties do not translate into a security guarantee, especially if tensions with Washington escalate into open conflict.

“China and Russia don’t want to go head-to-head with the US over Iran," said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

She noted that despite decades of cooperation, Iran has failed to secure a formal military alliance with either power. If Washington were to strike Iran, Geranmayeh said, “both the Chinese and the Russians will prioritise their bilateral relationship with Washington."

According to her assessment, Beijing is trying to preserve a fragile rapprochement with the Trump administration, while Moscow wants to keep the US engaged in negotiations over ending the war in Ukraine. “They both have much higher priorities than Iran."

Russia’s limits

Russian analysts echoed this view, stressing that Moscow’s partnership with Tehran has clear boundaries. Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst, told AFP that “Russia-Iranian treaties don’t include military support" and are limited to political, diplomatic and economic cooperation.

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Moscow would try “to keep the regime afloat". But he cautioned that “Russia’s options are very limited."

With Russia grappling with its own economic pressures, Gabuev said it cannot become “a giant market for Iranian products" or offer Tehran “a lavish loan. "

Nikita Smagin, a specialist on Russia-Iran relations, was even more blunt. In the event of US strikes, he said Russia could do “almost nothing."

“They don’t want to risk military confrontation with other great powers like the US — but at the same time, they’re ready to send weaponry to Iran," Smagin said. He added that “using Iran as a bargaining asset is a normal thing for Russia" as Moscow continues talks with Washington over Ukraine.

Markov agreed that Iran ranks lower on Moscow’s list of priorities. “The Ukrainian crisis is much more important for Russia than the Iranian crisis," he said.

China’s cautious calculus

China’s approach is also marked by restraint, analysts told AFP. Hua Po, a Beijing-based independent political observer, said China is willing to support Iran “economically, technologically, militarily and politically" in response to non-military US pressure such as sanctions, trade measures or cyber actions.

If the US were to carry out strikes, Hua said China “would strengthen its economic ties with Iran and help it militarise in order to contribute to bogging the United States down in a war in the Middle East."

Still, other observers doubt Beijing would go that far. Theo Nencini, a researcher on Iran-China relations at Sciences Po Grenoble, said China has so far chosen to act “with restraint," carefully weighing its interests in energy security and regional stability.

“China is benefiting from a weakened Iran, which allows it to secure low-cost oil… and to acquire a sizeable geopolitical partner," Nencini said. But he added, “I find it hard to see them engaging in a showdown with the Americans over Iran."

According to Nencini, Beijing would likely issue condemnations of US action but avoid any direct retaliation.

Hua also downplayed the impact of the Iran crisis on broader China-US ties. “The Iranian question isn’t at the heart of relations between the two countries," he said. “Neither will sever ties with the other over Iran."

Diplomatic backing, not battlefield support

Taken together, expert assessments suggest that while Russia and China may continue to shield Iran diplomatically and ease its economic isolation, they are unlikely to risk a direct clash with the United States.

As protests rock Iran and Washington keeps up pressure, Tehran’s powerful partners appear willing to offer words, trade and limited assistance, but not the kind of military backing that could draw them into a wider war.