Canada sees sharpest population decline in 80 years: What triggered the historic fall | Explained

(FILES) The Canadian flags are pictured as the Latvian prime minister waits to welcome Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada (not in picture) as he arrives for a meeting on August 26, 2025 in Riga, Latvia. (Photo by Gints Ivuskans / AFP)

Canada has recorded its sharpest quarterly population decline in at least 80 years, with official data showing a significant fall between July and September this year as the country sharply reduced the number of temporary residents, especially international students.

Figures released by Statistics Canada showed the population dropped by 76,068 people, or 0.2%, in the third quarter of 2025. Data going back to 1946 shows no steeper quarterly decline. The last population fall was during the Covid-19 pandemic, when Canada’s population slipped by just 1,232 people in the final quarter of 2020.

Statistics Canada said the decline was overwhelmingly driven by a reduction in non-permanent residents.

“Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada’s population over this period,” the agency said.

As of October 1, 2025, Canada had 2,847,737 non-permanent residents, accounting for 6.8% of the population. This was down from 3,024,216, or 7.3%, on July 1. The agency attributed the fall to “larger, record high outflows” of temporary residents.

The decline marks a sharp break from Canada’s recent population boom. In the third quarter of 2023, the population grew by 418,634 people, or 1%, the fastest quarterly rise since 1957. Even in the same quarter last year, Canada added 231,803 people, a growth rate of 0.6%.

That surge followed immigration policies under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that led to a record intake of temporary residents. Public anger over rising housing costs and pressure on infrastructure later forced Ottawa to tighten those policies.

A major part of the decline came from a sharp fall in international students, particularly from India.

Data from Immigration, Refugees and Immigration Canada showed that study permits issued to Indian students fell by more than half in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier.

Between July and September this year, Indian students received 24,030 study permits out of a total of 146,505, or 16.4%. In the same period last year, Indians accounted for 52,425 permits, nearly 30% of the 177,025 visas issued.

In September alone, Indian students were granted 8,400 of the 49,350 study permits issued, compared with 14,385 out of 46,230 in September 2024.

The drop follows restrictions rolled out from late 2023, as the government blamed a surge in temporary migration for worsening housing shortages and strain on public services.

In November, the government projected a 7% fall in international student permits next year. IRCC said study permits in 2026 would be capped at 408,000, including 155,000 new permits and 253,000 extensions.

“This number is 7% lower than the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 and 16% lower than the 2024 issuance target of 485,000,” IRCC said.

The department added that the cap, first introduced in 2024, had already slowed the growth of Canada’s temporary population. The number of study permit holders dropped from more than one million in January 2024 to about 725,000 by September 2025.

“While this progress is significant, further reductions are needed to meet our commitment of reducing the share of Canada’s temporary population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027,” IRCC said.