Bangladesh inks shadow US trade deal ahead of elections: Why Yunus is rushing a pact before exit and who benefits

File photo of Chief advisor of Bangladesh's interim government Muhammad Yunus.

Bangladesh’s unelected interim government plans to sign a secret trade deal with the US just days before elections, sparking concerns over its timing, lack of transparency, and potential negative impact on exports and future governments.

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While India publicly secured a favourable trade agreement with the United States, a very different story is unfolding in neighbouring Bangladesh. Dhaka is preparing to sign a Bangladesh-US trade deal on February 9 that remains entirely secret, triggering alarm across the country over its timing, legality and potential economic fallout.

The agreement is set to be inked just three days before Bangladesh goes to the polls on February 12. It is being pushed through by the unelected interim administration headed by Muhammad Yunus, raising sharp questions about mandate and intent. Exporters, economists and political observers fear that a government with no electoral legitimacy is binding the country to a deal whose contents remain hidden from the public.

The secrecy has only deepened anxieties, especially after reports that the Yunus administration signed a non-disclosure agreement with Washington in 2025, preventing any public scrutiny of the negotiations, according to Prothom Alo.

Why the timing has raised alarm

The rush to sign the deal has become the biggest source of unease. The Yunus administration is expected to step aside shortly after the election, yet it is moving ahead with a trade agreement that could shape Bangladesh’s economy for years.

Bangladeshi economist and public intellectual Anu Muhammad questioned the urgency in a Facebook post.

He asked about the “urgency to lease a port, import arms, and sign subordination agreements with the United States just a few days before the national election.”

He further alleged that agreements were being pushed in a “completely non-transparent, illogical, and irregular manner” and claimed foreign “lobbyists” had been placed inside the Yunus administration as advisers and were “desperate to make these agreements.”

Exporters fear the worst

The strongest pushback is coming from Bangladesh’s export community, particularly the garment sector that dominates trade with the United States.

Bangladesh exports around 7 to 8.4 billion dollars worth of apparel and textiles to the US every year. Ready-made garments account for about 96 percent of those exports. The sector employs an estimated 4 to 5 million people directly, more than half of them women.

With US tariffs on Indian exports now down to 18 percent and Bangladesh currently at 20 percent, exporters fear the secret deal could worsen their competitiveness.

According to Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association senior vice president Inamul Haque Khan, the lack of consultation is deeply troubling.

“Based on the target for purchases from the US, it can be expected that the reciprocal tariff rate will come down to 15% (currently 20%). I had heard that National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman had streamlined this. I was surprised to see the signing of the agreement come just three days before the election. I still believe this should have been done after the election, because it carries major implications,” he told Prothom Alo.

Will the next government be tied down?

Economists warn that the Yunus setup may be tying the hands of the next elected government.

Distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, Debapriya Bhattacharya, raised serious concerns.

“Had the tariff agreement been signed after the election, political parties could have discussed it. It is also worth considering whether the hands of the incoming elected government are being tied,” he was quoted as saying by Prothom Alo.

Business leaders echo this fear. Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Taskeen Ahmed said uncertainty over the contents of the deal made it impossible to assess the impact.

“It is not clear what benefits Bangladesh will gain from the agreement with the US. At the same time, business leaders are concerned about what conditions the agreement will include and which sectors may face negative impacts. They are also raising various questions,” he told Prothom Alo.

Political allegations and US role

The controversy has also revived allegations about the circumstances under which the Yunus administration came to power after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024.

There are persistent claims that Yunus was installed with the backing of Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami, alongside tacit support from Western powers.

Speaking at a virtual event in Kolkata, Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed alleged that Bangladesh was heading into a “sham” election designed to install a weak government loyal to foreign interests. He accused the interim regime of acting in a “completely non-transparent” manner.

Bangladeshi journalist Sahidul Hasan Khokon told India Today Digital, “The role of the United States, while indirect, was geopolitically significant. Ignoring this reality makes it difficult to fully understand both the events of 2024 and the direction Bangladesh may take going forward.”

What we know about the deal so far

Very little is officially known.

Bangladesh was hit with a steep 37 percent tariff when US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April 2025. That was later reduced to 35 percent in July and then to 20 percent in August.

Last week, Bangladeshi Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said, “We have received the date from the US. It is 9 February. The agreement will be signed on that day,” as reported by The Daily Sun.

Beyond that, the contents remain secret.

Should India be concerned?

From India’s perspective, the developments in Bangladesh merit close attention.

India has just secured an 18 percent tariff rate from the United States through a transparent leader-level engagement. If Bangladesh accepts unfavourable or restrictive terms under pressure, it could reshape regional trade dynamics and supply chains, especially in textiles.

At the same time, concerns about US influence, Islamist political forces, and opaque decision-making in Dhaka raise broader questions about political stability next door.

For now, India appears better placed economically. But a destabilised Bangladesh bound by secret agreements could have spillover effects that New Delhi cannot afford to ignore.

A deal that has become a symbol

What has made the Bangladesh-US trade agreement controversial is not just tariffs, but trust.

A secret deal, signed days before an election by an unelected regime, affecting the backbone of the economy, has become a symbol of everything critics say is wrong with the Yunus administration.

As exporters wait in the dark and voters head to the polls, the fear is simple and widespread. Bangladesh may be locking itself into a deal it did not choose, negotiated by a government it did not elect.