As the United States spends billions on military operations in Iran and global markets react to the latest oil shocks, China may be quietly setting the terms of the next economic contest.
At the National People’s Congress on March 5, Beijing unveiled its 15th Five-Year Plan, a sweeping 141-page blueprint that places artificial intelligence, robotics, rare earths and advanced technologies at the centre of the country’s economic future.
The document has received far less global attention than the unfolding war in West Asia. But analysts argue it could prove far more consequential for the long-term balance of power between the world’s two largest economies.
“This is not just an economic plan,” analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera wrote in a widely shared post on X. “It is a war plan for a war the United States is not fighting.”
While the United States spends billions bombing Iran and the world watches oil prices crash, China just published the most consequential economic document of the decade. Nobody is paying attention. That is the point. The 15th Five-Year Plan, unveiled at the National People’s… pic.twitter.com/uCeiL9C05l— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 10, 2026
AI everywhere: China’s economy-wide push
The plan repeatedly emphasises artificial intelligence as a core growth engine.
AI is mentioned more than 50 times in the document, reflecting Beijing’s ambition to embed the technology across industries ranging from manufacturing and logistics to finance and healthcare.
The targets are striking.
China aims to achieve AI penetration across roughly 70 percent of its economy by 2027, rising to around 90 percent by 2030, according to the document.
Beyond software, the strategy also focuses on humanoid robotics, which the government has identified as a pillar industry. Officials expect output in the sector to double within five years.
The plan also prioritises frontier technologies including quantum communications networks linking space and Earth, nuclear fusion research, and brain-computer interfaces.
Collectively, Beijing wants AI-related industries to reach a value exceeding 10 trillion yuan (about $1.38 trillion) in the coming years.
The supply chain weapon: rare earth dominance
Another critical element of the plan is China’s control over rare earth minerals, a group of elements essential for electronics, defence systems and clean energy technologies.
China already dominates the sector, accounting for about 90 percent of global rare-earth processing capacity.
These materials are vital for modern military equipment. For example, each F-35 fighter jet requires hundreds of pounds of rare earth materials used in electronics, sensors and advanced components.
The five-year plan calls for “extraordinary measures” to strengthen control over rare-earth supply chains while accelerating domestic semiconductor development.
Analysts see this as an attempt to consolidate leverage over industries ranging from electric vehicles and smartphones to advanced weapons systems.
Washington’s response: the CHIPS Act
The United States has responded to China’s technological rise with industrial policy of its own.
In 2022, Washington passed the CHIPS and Science Act, allocating about $52.7 billion to support domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
The programme includes $39 billion in direct subsidies and a 25 percent investment tax credit designed to encourage chip production inside the United States.
The policy has already triggered hundreds of billions of dollars in private investment in semiconductor factories across dozens of states.
Yet critics argue that while the CHIPS Act targets a crucial sector, it remains far narrower than China’s economy-wide approach.
A different kind of rivalry
The contrast reflects two different strategic timelines.
The Iran war is absorbing global attention, consuming military resources and reshaping energy markets. But China’s five-year plan signals a longer-term competition centred on technology, supply chains and industrial capacity.
While the immediate headlines are dominated by missiles and oil prices, the quieter race to dominate AI, robotics and advanced manufacturing could ultimately prove more decisive for the global economy.
In that sense, Beijing’s 141-page policy blueprint may shape the next decade of technological competition, even if it arrives in the shadow of a very different war.
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