Afghanistan-Pakistan in 'open war': How bad can it really get? Here's the worst-case scenario

Pakistan bombarded Afghanistan's major cities in its most significant attacks since the Taliban returned to power in 2021 with the US withdrawal.

• Pakistan and Afghanistan clashes raise fears of wider conflict
• Pakistan carried out airstrikes; Taliban targeted border posts
• Diplomatic talks could bring temporary calm but tensions remain

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Intense clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the weekend have raised fears that tensions between the two neighbours could spiral into a wider conflict. This, at a time when the West Asia region has already turned into a war theatre between US, its allies, and Iran.

According to South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman, the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis could evolve in several ways, ranging from a fragile ceasefire to a dangerous escalation involving terror groups and cross-border strikes.

Pakistan carried out airstrikes across more than twenty locations in Afghanistan, including Kabul and Kandahar, while the Taliban targeted multiple Pakistani border posts. Notably, the Taliban also targeted the strategic Nur Khan airbase of Pakistan, which houses the country's nuclear command and control infrastructure.

The recent violence marks one of the most intense flare-ups in years, with tensions getting worse with each day.

Pakistan's defence minister, Khawaja Asif, said last month that the country is now in "open war" with Afghanistan. Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for how the conflict could unfold.

Best-case scenario: Fragile talks and temporary calm

According to Kugelman, the most optimistic outcome would see both sides return to internationally mediated talks and agree to a fresh ceasefire.

Diplomatic efforts in the past have involved mediators such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. A new round of negotiations could temporarily reduce tensions and halt cross-border attacks.

However, even this outcome would likely be fragile. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has stepped up attacks inside Pakistan in recent years.

The Taliban denies harbouring the group but has long-standing ties with it. As a result, any ceasefire would likely act only as a temporary pause rather than a lasting solution.

Mid-range scenario: Sustained but limited clashes

A more likely scenario is continued tit-for-tat attacks without either side escalating into a full-scale war, Kugelman said.

Pakistan could continue targeted airstrikes against militant positions across the border, while Taliban forces respond with limited ground operations and attacks on Pakistani border posts, according to the Atlantic Council.

Even at a lower intensity, such confrontations would keep tensions dangerously high, particularly as militant attacks inside Pakistan continue.

Worst-case scenario: Full-scale escalation

The most dangerous outcome would involve Pakistan dramatically expanding its air campaign across Afghanistan, targeting both Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters and Taliban infrastructure it believes is sheltering them, the South Asia analyst said.

Such strikes could trigger a broader retaliation by the Afghan Taliban. Which could intensify cross-border operations and mobilise allied militant networks to launch attacks deep inside Pakistan, including in major cities.

That escalation could destabilise Pakistan further, particularly if unrest spills over from neighbouring Iran into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, said the report.

At the same time, Pakistan already faces tensions on its eastern border with India, raising concerns about the country confronting multiple security crises simultaneously.

A wider conflict could also draw international attention. Kugelman says that such a scenario might force intervention attempts by the administration of Donald Trump, although diplomatic bandwidth may already be stretched due to the broader war in the Middle East.