A weekend that could change the Middle East: Trump’s final call, US military buildup and Iran’s options | Explained

(FILES) A US Navy officer walks past fighter jets parked on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham during a media tour in Port Klang, on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, on November 26, 2024.

US-Iran tensions are at a critical point, with the US military ready for strikes if Trump orders. Massive US deployments, stalled nuclear talks, and threats from Iran raise fears of regional conflict, though diplomacy continues amid military buildup.

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Tensions between the United States and Iran are at a critical junction as reports suggest the US military is prepared to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend if President Donald Trump gives the order. Sources familiar with planning told CNN the US military could be ready for action by the weekend, but Trump has not yet made a final decision, and senior advisers remain divided over whether to use force or continue diplomacy. The rapid escalation of military assets across the Middle East, combined with stalled nuclear talks and increasingly combative rhetoric on both sides, has made the possibility of conflict both more credible and more dangerous.

The reports come even as diplomacy in Geneva continues, with American envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner meeting Iranian officials under Omani mediation. Both sides have acknowledged progress on “guiding principles” for a nuclear deal, but officials caution that detailed agreement remains far off.

Massive military buildup in the Middle East

The US has staged one of its largest military deployments in the Middle East in years. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, have both been ordered into the region, joined by scores of advanced fighter jets, including F-22s, F-35s and F-16s, guided-missile destroyers, aerial refuelling tankers and air defence systems.

This “unprecedented” build-up, described by analysts as the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, reflects US preparations for a possibly prolonged, weeks-long campaign rather than a limited strike should Trump authorise action.

Officials have indicated the focus would extend beyond Iran’s nuclear sites to include other state and security infrastructure targets, though precise operational plans have not been publicly detailed. The Pentagon also says it has positioned defensive capabilities alongside offensive assets in anticipation of Iranian retaliation.

US public messaging has combined threats with a continued expressed preference for diplomacy. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the sides remain far apart in nuclear talks, but emphasised that diplomatic engagement continues even amid the buildup.

How Iran might respond

Iran is widely expected to retaliate forcefully if attacked. Tehran has repeatedly warned that it would strike US bases in the region and could attempt to disrupt regional oil traffic, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil flows. In recent days, Revolutionary Guard drills in the Strait underscored Iran’s readiness to use its missile and naval capabilities in response to threats.

Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East and a complex network of proxies, including groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, all of which could be mobilised in retaliation. Sanctions and economic pressures have constrained Iran’s conventional spending, but its missile forces and asymmetric capabilities remain potent. Analysts also warn that Iran may retaliate in concert with allied militiamen or target commercial and military assets linked to the United States.

Tehran’s leadership has repeatedly rejected US demands for full compliance with nuclear limits and missile restrictions, insisting that its missile programme and enrichment remain non-negotiable. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has bluntly warned that the world’s strongest army could be struck hard, signalling that Iran is prepared for escalation.

The role of Israel and regional dynamics

Israel is a key factor in the crisis. Jerusalem has long opposed a US-Iran nuclear deal that leaves Iran with any significant enrichment capability. Israeli leaders have reportedly been preparing for the possibility that Washington may authorise strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure. Some Israeli security assessments suggest Iran could threaten Israeli territory with missiles even if Israel itself does not participate in a US strike.

Coordination between US and Israeli military planners is said to be ongoing, with discussions of how Israeli forces might act in concert with or independently of US operations if conflict erupts. These dynamics add layers of complexity, as regional states including Gulf monarchies also fear instability from a broader confrontation.

Nuclear talks and diplomacy still in play

Despite the military manoeuvring, diplomacy has not been abandoned. Talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman, have reportedly yielded a broad understanding on core principles, with both sides agreeing to “clear next steps” toward narrowing gaps, though much work remains. Iran’s foreign minister said that “different ideas have been presented, these ideas have been seriously discussed … and we’ve been able to reach a general agreement on some guiding principles.”

Oil markets reacted to these remarks with a drop in futures prices, reflecting hopes that dialogue could reduce the risk of imminent conflict. However, scepticism remains on both sides, with Tehran reaffirming that it will not give up key elements of its nuclear program, and Washington signalling its openness to significant military pressure if necessary.

Implications if conflict erupts

Analysis of current military planning suggests that any US strikes on Iran could rapidly escalate into a broader regional war. A sustained campaign could involve aerial bombardment, naval blockades and cyber operations, and is widely expected to provoke Iranian counterstrikes on US bases and possibly allied states’ infrastructure.

Wider escalation could draw in non-state actors and proxy groups aligned with Iran, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi forces in Yemen, potentially expanding the conflict beyond direct US-Iran confrontation. Civilian harm, oil price spikes, disruption to global shipping and deeper sectarian violence are among the feared consequences, prompting calls from regional actors for restraint.

The coming days may prove decisive in shaping whether diplomacy can avert war or whether the United States authorizes military action that could redraw security dynamics across the Middle East.