Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket made unusually large profits after the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, triggering questions about possible insider trading.
According to Axios, a Polymarket account created in late December placed a $30,000 bet, around Rs 27 lakh, on Maduro’s exit from power on Friday. Within 24 hours, the position reportedly paid out $436,759.61, roughly Rs 3.93 crore, after US President Donald Trump announced that American forces had taken Maduro into custody following overnight strikes on Caracas.
The account quickly became the focus of online speculation after Trump’s disclosure. An X post highlighted the timing, noting that the trader had invested heavily shortly before the operation and walked away with more than $400,000 in profit in under a day.
“A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours," the post read.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTapic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026
The Wall Street Journal reported that the market predicting Maduro’s removal began rising shortly before 10 pm ET on Friday, hours before Trump’s public announcement. One Polymarket trader claimed to have earned about $80,000, nearly Rs 72 lakh, after noticing a spike in late-night orders from Domino’s Pizza outlets near the Pentagon. Such activity is often cited online as an informal indicator of heightened staffing and operational activity.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to questions about the profits, Axios reported. While the timing surprised many observers, sharp swings on prediction markets have previously been seen around political events, sports outcomes and major global developments, making high interest in Maduro’s fate not entirely unprecedented.
US lawmaker moves to regulate prediction markets
Democratic US Representative from New York, Ritchie Torres, is preparing to introduce legislation aimed at tightening rules around political betting.
The proposed Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 would seek to restrict federal elected officials, political appointees and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts linked to government policy or political outcomes. The bill would apply when such individuals possess, or could reasonably obtain, material nonpublic information through their official roles.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
Find the best of Al News in one place, specially curated for you every weekend.
Stay on top of the latest tech trends and biggest startup news.
