162 seats, deep cash, early booth control: Why Jamaat’s electoral rise in Bangladesh raises red flags for India

Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party supporters in solidarity with Palestinians shout slogans during an anti-Israel protest in Peshawar on October 12, 2025(Photo by Abdul MAJEED / AFP)

Jamaat-e-Islami is shifting to a data-driven, targeted campaign for Bangladesh’s 2026 election, focusing on 162 key seats, especially in Dhaka. India is monitoring closely, fearing security risks if Jamaat gains power due to its Islamist links and border proximity.

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As Bangladesh’s 2026 parliamentary election gathers momentum, Jamaat-e-Islami is no longer operating like a marginal Islamist force casting a wide but shallow net. Instead, it is executing what sources describe as a cold, data-driven strategy focused on precision wins rather than national presence.

According to inputs accessed by CNN-News18, Jamaat planners conducted an extensive constituency-by-constituency assessment, blending voting data from the 1991 and 1996 elections with fresh internal surveys. The exercise covered all 300 parliamentary seats and resulted in a sharp recalibration of ambitions.

By October 2024, Jamaat had narrowed its realistic targets to 162 constituencies where victory was considered achievable with concentrated effort. Insiders describe this as an “intelligent consolidation”, with the party deliberately withdrawing manpower, money and organisational energy from the remaining 138 seats to avoid dilution.

Dhaka has emerged as a core focus. Around 20 constituencies in the capital are receiving disproportionate attention due to their symbolic value, media visibility and ability to shape national narratives.

Early booth control and voter engineering

Jamaat’s campaign is placing unusual emphasis on mechanics rather than rhetoric. Ground mobilisation is being treated as a science.

Sources told CNN-News18 that postal voting is a central pillar of the strategy. Nearly 1.5 million expatriate supporters aligned with Jamaat are reportedly being mobilised to vote through postal ballots, alongside a large pool of carefully mapped domestic voters.

In urban centres, particularly Dhaka, Jamaat’s Women’s Wing and Islami Chhatri Sangstha are conducting door-to-door surveys to profile voter behaviour. These teams are also tasked with turnout management on polling day.

Jamaat-Shibir activists are expected to reach polling booths immediately after Fajr prayers to establish early numerical dominance in queues. Insiders view this as a national-scale replication of tactics previously tested during student union elections at Dhaka University and other public universities.

Money power and targeted influence

Financial muscle appears to underpin Jamaat’s confidence. Sources claim the party has earmarked between BDT 50 crore and BDT 100 crore per constituency across 162 to 188 priority seats.

Campaign costs for allied outfits, including the National Citizen Party, are also reportedly being absorbed by Jamaat.

At the grassroots level, activists are said to be collecting national ID numbers, mobile details and information linked to bKash, Nagad and Rocket accounts from poorer voters. Intelligence inputs suggest this data could be used for targeted cash transfers ahead of polling day to influence voter behaviour.

A fragmented opposition field

While Jamaat consolidates, the BNP-led alliance appears increasingly fractured.

Sources indicate that rebel candidates could emerge in 70 to 80 constituencies, weakening campaign discipline. Since August 2024, allegations of extortion, arson and violence have reportedly been more frequent against BNP affiliates than Jamaat-Shibir units, blunting the opposition’s moral positioning.

Jamaat insiders privately claim the party could secure between 205 and 210 seats, with the BNP alliance reduced to 90 to 95. The presence of a same-day referendum adds further uncertainty. Sources say it could enable constitutional changes, expand presidential powers and potentially create a pathway for Muhammad Yunus to assume the presidency, a scenario they allege is being shaped by the interim administration.

Why India is watching closely

Indian intelligence agencies are tracking Jamaat’s rise with growing concern.

A Jamaat-led or Jamaat-dominated government in Dhaka is viewed as a serious internal security challenge, particularly for West Bengal and parts of the Northeast. Agencies cite Jamaat’s ideological foundations and historical links to Islamist mobilisation networks as long-term risk multipliers.

West Bengal’s porous border makes it the most exposed. Districts such as North 24 Parganas are flagged due to their proximity to Bangladesh and history of communal tension. Even subtle shifts in enforcement or political signalling from Dhaka could have immediate spillover effects.

South 24 Parganas is seen as vulnerable to cross-border facilitators operating through fishing and cattle routes. Murshidabad’s demographic sensitivity raises fears of ideological spillover shaping local narratives. Malda and Nadia are monitored for recruitment and logistical support activities, while Cooch Behar and North Bengal present risks that could cascade into Assam and Tripura.