US Marines’ slow withdrawal from Okinawa in Japan underscores shifting geopolitical priorities

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Before Christmas, 105 US Marines who were originally slated for Okinawa in Japan were instead redirected to Guam, a US island territory in the Western Pacific. The move marked a significant milestone—the first official reduction of US Marine personnel on the island under a long-delayed agreement between Washington and Tokyo to scale down the American military presence in Okinawa, according to The New York Times.

Under the agreement, nearly 9,000 Marines—almost half of the force currently stationed in Okinawa—are supposed to relocate. However, the plan remains mired in delays and is unlikely to be fully implemented for at least another decade, pending the completion of replacement bases.

A decades-long effort stalled by geopolitical realities

The deal to downsize US forces in Okinawa was first agreed upon in 1996, following mass protests sparked by the rape of an Okinawan schoolgirl by three US servicemen. The plan aimed to relocate Marines within five to seven years, but setbacks have kept the existing base operational while the replacement remains years from completion.

With China’s growing military assertiveness in the region, neither Washington nor Tokyo appears in a hurry to expedite the process. "A dozen years later, only a hundred Marines have moved," noted Christopher B. Johnstone, a former senior US defence official involved in negotiations. "Both sides know things aren’t moving forward, but neither side is incentivized to take action," he told The New York Times.

Rising Chinese presence complicates plans

Tensions in the region have contributed to the reluctance to withdraw troops. Last week, Japan’s Defense Ministry reported that four Chinese warships had sailed between Okinawa and a nearby island. Conservative politicians who view the bases as economic lifelines have gained traction in recent local elections.

However, resentment lingers. Critics argue that Japan’s hesitancy to expedite the relocation reflects a broader disregard for Okinawa, which was an independent kingdom until the late 19th century. Governor Denny Tamaki, a leading opponent of the bases, has fought to slow the construction of new facilities, but Japan’s Supreme Court recently dismissed his final lawsuit.

Future of the Marines in Okinawa remains uncertain

Despite delays, other elements of the relocation plan are beginning to take shape. At Camp Foster, new headquarters, schools, and housing are being built to consolidate US personnel, allowing some bases to close. "We haven’t seen this level of construction here since the 1950s," said Col. Leroy Bryant Butler, a Marine overseeing the projects.

Japan is funding much of the construction, spending approximately $1.5 billion annually, in addition to the $2.8 billion it contributed to Camp Blaz, the new Marine base on Guam.

However, the Marine Corps has made no secret of its reluctance to scale back its presence. No clear timetable has been provided, and in the event of a conflict, Marines stationed in Guam would have to fight their way back to Japan. "Japan is now in the weapons-engagement zone," warned Wallace Gregson, a retired Marine lieutenant general. "We need to change the conversation to problems that are relevant in 2025."

For now, the future of the US presence in Okinawa remains uncertain—caught between shifting geopolitical tides and bureaucratic inertia, concludes The New York Times.